|ECO Report uses a cartoon call-out to explain climate change trends|
in Ontario but fails to provide any data to support statements regarding
historical storm trends. Data tells a different story on storm trends.
The report fails to acknowledge extreme rainfall trends in Ontario, ignoring trends identified by the academic community and fundamental information in the official Engineering Climate Datasets.
Chapter 9 indicates:
Here in Ontario we are already feeling the effects of climate change. Higher average temperatures, more climate extremes and the increased incidence of drought, storms, and unseasonable temperatures are affecting people across the province."
|Short duration rainfall in southern Ontario shows many statistically decreases for duration of 2 hours or less and only one statistically significant increase. There are several statistically significant decreases for 5 to 15 minute durations but no increases for the shortest rainfall durations.|
The ECO report exercises an "Availability Bias" to characterize storm incidence stating " The Toronto floods in 2013, the 2014 floods in Burlington and parts of eastern Ontario, and those experienced on the Toronto Islands, in Windsor, in Cambridge, in Minden and in the Ottawa-Gatineau region in 2017, are all the types of events that climate change makes more likely." Evidence-based policies should instead rely on data to characterize extreme weather risks as opposed to anecdotal lists.
|July 8, 2013 was a record rainfall for July 8ths but|
daily maximum rainfall has been decreasing.
Academic research published in the International Journal of Environmental Research, Changes in Rainfall Extremes in Ontario relies on data and peer-reviewed analysis to characterize extreme rain - that rigorous approach indicates no obvious regional pattern:
|Many Ontario Extreme Rainfall Trends are decreasing especially in|
south west and south east regions.
The table from the paper below shows that Southwest Ontario and Southeast Ontario rainfall has been decreasing at many climate stations, including many statistically significant decreasing trends. Similar to the Environment and Climate Change Canada's Engineering Climate Datasets, there are more statistically significant deceases than increases.
|Extreme rainfall trends in Ontario show decreases and increases.|