Showing posts with label CBC News. Show all posts
Showing posts with label CBC News. Show all posts

What COVID-19 Taught Us About Observed Data vs. Model Projections: They Are Different - Let's Remember That When Interpreting Climate Models

COVID-19 data vs models climate change projections model uncertainty
COVID-19 - observed data on ICU cases and projected capacity
"All models are wrong, some are useful".  Predicting COVID-19 conditions has taught us that models come with a great deal of uncertainty, and are based on a lot of assumptions.  Furthermore, models have to be constantly updated over time with real observed baseline data to represent the starting point for future predictions. At least we recognize the difference between theoretical model projections and the past observations on COVID-19 conditions.  More attention should be given to the difference between theoretical models of climate effects and observed changes in extreme weather.

In early April, COVID-19 ICU cases were projected to increase to 1200 in a best case to about 1500 in a worst case in Ontario, increasing considerably from actual data counts in late March.  The chart at right shows that ICU beds peaked at under 300 cases by mid April, a fraction of the best case model prediction, and has declined since.  So model projections should be viewed with some caution, and the reliability of the projections should be questioned and validated where possible with real data.

Predicting future weather extremes due to climate change effects has a great deal of uncertainty as well.  The recurrence time of extreme rainfall is predicted to decrease due to climate change effects, meaning that the "return period" of storms would become smaller.  For example, a rainfall event that had a return period of 35 years today (meaning a probability of occurring in any year of 1/35, or 1 in 35) has been predicted to occur every 12 years in the future (i.e., a higher probability of happening each year of 1/12 or 1 in 12 ... that a greater chance than today's 1/35).  That is what is projected to occur in Canada from now to 2100.

The above example on decreasing recurrence times is from a simulation presented in Canada's Changing Climate Report by Environment Canada (link: https://changingclimate.ca/CCCR2019/).  It is for a future scenario with several assumptions about growth and emissions called the RCP8.5 scenario, representing a Representative Concentration Pathway of just one of several future scenarios.  The shift in 24-hour precipitation recurrence times are presented on Figure 4.20 b shown below:

Canada's Changing Climate Report Extreme Precipitation Return Period Recurrence Times RCP8.5 Model Simulations
Canada's Changing Climate Report Figures 4.20 b), Projected Extreme Precipitation Recurrence Time / Return Periods for Past, Present and Future Time Periods, RCP8.5 Model Simulation Scenario

As annotated above, today's recurrence time is noted as 35 years, the future recurrence time is 12 years and the past time was 50 years. So the model predicts these shifts in recurrence time (return period) and annual probability:

   Period         Recurrence Time       Probability Each Year
1986-2005             50 years                       2.0 %   (1/50)
2016-2035             35 years                       2.9 %   (1/35)
2081-2100             12 years                       8.3 %   (1/12)

Some have misinterpreted the theoretical, simulation model changes from past to present as 'actual' observed changes in extreme precipitation when in fact the Environment Canada report clearly notes these are 'projected changes' and are 'simulated by Earth system models' for the scenario RCP8.5.  A different scenario's simulated results, with different assumed emissions and growth, and different recurrence time shifts are presented in Figure 4.20 a) as well.

CBC News In Our Backyard Extreme Rainfall Trends
CBC News In Our Backyard - Flooding
CBC's In Our Backyard interactive notes "Climate change is no longer theoretical. It’s in our backyard" - unfortunately it presents theoretical past model trends as real changes that are "In Our Backyard" now.  Here is the online report link: https://www.cbc.ca/news2/interactives/inourbackyard/

CBC News report: "Climate change is making extreme rainfall a more frequent occurrence. Storms that historically happened only once every 50 years are now coming every 35 years or less. By the end of the century, they could happen once every 12 years on average, according to a recent climate report from Environment Canada. All this increases the potential for urban flooding."

CBC News Past Present and Future Rainfall Recurrence Time Return Periods for for Severe Storms
CBC News In Out Backyard Extreme Rainfall Frequency - Past, Present, and Future Recurrence Times Confuses Simulation Model Projections With Observed, Historical Trends


So while predicted changes are only theoretical, CBC News mistakenly reports that changes have already occurred and are 'now coming' at smaller recurrence intervals (i.e., higher frequency and higher probability each year).

The CBC Ombudsman has indicated that the CBC should be careful to distinguish between past, present and future extreme rainfall trends, as noted in a recent post: https://www.cityfloodmap.com/2020/05/past-present-or-future-cbc-ombudsman.html

We agree.

A review of historical extreme rainfall trends in one region of Canada affected by may flooding events has shown no decrease in the recurrence time, or return period, of extreme precipitation.  A previous post showed that today's 35 year storms are actually occurring less frequently than in the past. In southern Ontario, long term climate station observations show that the average 25 to 50 year rainfall intensities today are actually slightly smaller than they were considering observations up to 1990. See previous post: https://www.cityfloodmap.com/2020/05/southern-ontario-extreme-rainfall.html

Analysis of the Version 3.10 Engineering Climate Datasets IDF Files updated in March 2020 show that southern Ontario long term rainfall intensities have decreased slightly since 1990, on average by 0.1%.  The 50 year return period rainfall intensities are on average unchanged.

If 50 year rainfall intensities actually occurred more frequently and now occur at a 35 year return period, as CBC mistakenly reported, then the magnitude of the 50 year intensities would have had to increase by about 6%.  This considers the example long term climate station at Toronto's Pearson International Airport - the 35 year 24-hour rainfall intensity of 99.7 mm at the airport would have to increase to the 50 year intensity of 105.7 mm.  Back in 1990, the 50 year 24-hour rainfall intensity at the airport was 109.3 mm, meaning the 50 year rainfall has decreased by several percentage points.  Here are the 1990 data (copied from my top desk drawer):

Toronto Extreme Precipitation Trends Climate Change Effects on Rainfall Intensity
Toronto Pearson International Airport IDF Table With Data Up to 1990 - 50 year design rainfall intensity of 109.3 mm  (shown here) was higher than today's version 3.10 Engineering Climate Datasets intensity of 105.7 mm (see table below to 2017).  

Here are the recently updated IDF values from Environment Canada considering data up to 2017:
Toronto Extreme Precipitation Trends Climate Change Effects on Rainfall Intensity
Toronto Pearson International Airport IDF Table With Data Up to 2017 - 50 year design rainfall intensity of 109.3 mm (see previous table to 1990) shown is lower than today's version 3.10 Engineering Climate Datasets intensity of 105.7 mm (shown here).

Climate models that predict more frequent future rainfall intensities, characterized by shorter recurrence times (i.e., lower return periods = higher probabilities of occurrence) are not necessarily in step with observations (see Toronto airport example above and previous post on southern Ontario long term stations).  Here is a comparison of past trends in 100-year rainfall intensity based on observed data and projections from various studies - the actual data curve is already 'flat', so the need to flatten the curve can only be made based on projections and not past data.
COVID-19 and Climate Change Effects on Extreme Weather Data vs Models and Uncertainty
Extreme Rainfall IDF Trends - Toronto 24-Hour 100-Year Rainfall Volumes per Environment Canada Engineering Climate Datasets - Past Data and Linearly Projected Trends Shown in Black.  Various Studies and Models Project Significant Increases That Have Not Shown Up In The Data Observed Data Statistics
Just like COVID-19 models have considerable uncertainty and must rely on observational data to calibrate and validate them - so they they are more reliable and useful in making projections of the future - climate models require checks on accuracy and usefulness.  Media like CBC News may not discern between model predictions and actual trend data which can mischaracterize trends in extreme weather.  Since models predicting extreme rainfall do not appear to match past observations over the recent past few decades, the accuracy and reliability to project conditions over the next 80 years should be closely scutinized.

While in the case of COVID-19, the need for "flattening the curve" is clear given the close scrutiny of observed data that has shown rising counts of infections, hospitalizations or deaths - that gives clear direction on actions to be taken to mitigate observed phenomena.  In the case of COVID-19, these values may even increase at an exponential rate.  In contrast, the IDF curve trends are largely flat if not already declining based on observed data in some regions.  Any change in extreme rainfall trends has been explained by natural variations (i.e., trends can go up).

***

There is a long-standing gap in the media mixing up predictions of extreme weather and actual Environment Canada observed data trends - sometimes a single report can start a narrative that can go unchecked for some time.  The "Telling the Weather Story" report is one such example where a theoretical shift in extreme weather has been reported, and repeated endlessly in the media as actual data when it is clearly not:


Past, Present, or Future? CBC Ombudsman finds "It would have been wrong to state categorically that Canada has already seen an increase in extreme rainfall events" - So What is Causing Flooding?

Fort McMurray Ice Jam Historical Flood Events
Fort McMurray Historical Ice Jam Events
Flooding caused by extreme weather has unfortunately been a significant threat to Canadians for decades.

Recent flooding in Fort McMurray, Alberta highlights how devastating flooding can be, causing widespread damage and even loss of life.  Often flood risks are long-standing and challenging to address.  For example, Fort McMurray flooding has been affected by ice jams since 1875, based on Review of flood stage frequency estimates for the City of Fort McMurray: Final report by
Alberta Environmental Protection, Technical Services and Monitoring Division (https://era.library.ualberta.ca/items/f6f26d4e-005d-462b-8d7c-0428db8f7d27).

In order to effectively manage flood risks, it is important to understand the causes.  Understanding if flood risks are increasing and if current management practices are working to prevent or mitigate risks is important.

Often journalists focus on changes in weather and climate as the primary cause of flooding, or increased flood damages.  In fact, historical land use practices and development that began in high risk areas a century before modern flood hazard mapping explains baseline flooding in many parts of Canada.  Redevelopment and intensification in these hazard areas can lead to increasing damages over time. Stay tuned for a future post with some examples.

Recently the CBC Ombudsman reviewed how CBC journalists report on past, present and future changes in extreme weather related to flooding in its In Our Backyard series, initiated last summer.  The full review is here: https://cbc.radio-canada.ca/en/ombudsman/reviews/Past-Present-or-Future.

What did the Ombudsman find?  Well, that "It would have been wrong to state categorically that Canada has already seen an increase in extreme rainfall events", recognizing that has already been reviewed in detail by CBC Radio-Canada Ombudsman Guy Gendron: https://site-cbc.radio-canada.ca/documents/ombuds/reviews/Review%20Robert%20Muir.pdf

The Ombudsman also found that "journalists could have been clearer with their choice of tenses". He
pointed to CBC reporting showing that changes in extreme precipitation are predicted in the future, but have not occurred already from past to present:

"The key stories make no direct claims, for instance, that more severe storms have been observed in Canada. What I saw was often a real effort made to lay out the issues with broad strokes, and avoid getting bogged down in details. Take this excerpt, for example, from the Harrison column:

According to the federal government's recent assessment, Canada's Changing Climate Report, there is "high confidence" that:

  • Canada is warming at twice the global rate, and our north is warming at three times that rate.
  • We can expect more extreme heat, warmer winters, earlier springs and rising sea levels.
  • Precipitation will increase in much of the country.
  • Weather extremes will intensify.

The last two bullet points are careful to use the future tense. If, as it appears, Mr. Harrison was the architect of this series, there’s no sense of an attempt to mislead, change facts or distort reality. There are appropriate distinctions made between observed phenomena and predicted phenomena."

So this is positive that CBC recognized the difference between observed phenomena and predicted ones.

While the Ombudsman got it right - more severe storms have not been observed - recent "In Our Backyard" reporting at CBC has already mixed up observations and predictions on this topic.  The Flooding tab in this report https://www.cbc.ca/news2/interactives/inourbackyard/ presents the following:



CBC states that extreme rainfall that had a 50 year recurrence time is now happening every 35 years., implying an observed phenomena. What report is CBC referring to? It is Canada's Changing Climate Report: https://changingclimate.ca/CCCR2019/chapter/4-0/

Specifically, Section 4.3.2.2 Projected changes and uncertainties includes a chart Figure 4.20 b) with simulation model projections.  Here it is:


The red line representing extreme 50-year storm events has model simulations from past to present to future, showing a predicted decreasing recurrence time (often called a "return period", the inverse of the storm's annual  probability of being exceeded).

Obviously the CBC can do better in terms of getting some basic details right - it may even be worthwhile getting "bogged down" in important details like the difference between observed and predicted changes in the factors affecting flooding.  As the Ombudsman wrote, there is a need to avoid 'shortcuts' that create 'ambiguity':

"I am not prepared to conclude that this was a violation of policy, but rather as a reminder that there cannot be shortcuts in language if they create ambiguity. This is a particular challenge in broadcast, where being concise is so critical, but editors and reporters should not leave out any word if it is necessary to sharpen the clarity of the reporting. When CBC is referring to the future, it would be better to say so. That way viewers won’t be left guessing."

Mixing up past, present and future continues to create ambiguity, leaving CBC viewers misinformed about actual extreme storm trends.  Unfortunately, this can divert attention from the other factors that affect flooding and that should be given our attention when managing long-standing risks.

Assessing the Damage. CBC Ombudsman Finds Wrong Flood Damage Values Reported, Notes "broader concern that there is a pattern of imprecision in CBC’s coverage relating to flood events"

The CBC Ombudsman has found violations in the CBC’s Journalistic Standards and Practices related to an April 11, 2019 article entitled "Canada's building code is getting a climate change rewrite. Is your home ready?" (link).

The violations relate to publishing the wrong value for flood damages resulting from a Toronto August 2018 storm, and failing to note corrections to an article.

The CBC has always been very responsive to feedback on extreme weather reporting, including on the frequency of extreme events.  In January 2019, the Ombudsman also found violations related to reporting of more frequent extreme rainfall events (i.e., 100-year storms) - corrections to a couple stories were required.  Those Ombudsman's findings are noted in a previous post.  Other CBC story corrections have been made since 2015, again relating to storm frequency and the causes of flooding, and are noted in this previous post.

The new Ombudsman findings are described here.

While the complaint surrounding the April 11, 2019 article is related to a single storm, the Ombudsman noted that there is a broader issue stating:

"I have a broader concern that there is a pattern of imprecision in CBC’s coverage relating to flood events."

This comment is based on the fact that the cited average flooded basement claim or payout was $43,000 was really based on an extreme 2013 flood event in Toronto - not an average at all - yet it has been repeated over and over by the media including CBC.

A previous post shows how this value started (as $40,000 back in 2017) and how it has been expanded to cover the whole country.  It has been used in Intact Centre on Climate Adaptation's infographics as well:


Intact Financial Corporation's website refers to the $43,000 value too:


Global News. The Globe and Mail. Canadian Underwriter. TVO's The Agenda. All repeat the incorrect $43,000 value. Only CBC has been keen enough to entertain a review and make corrections to the record.

The full review is noted below for reference

***
Assessing the Damage
  • Sep 20, 2019
    CBC reported that concerns about climate change are causing government to re-think the rules for construction of buildings and infrastructure. Complainant Robert Muir took exception to several details in the online article. Among them was an estimate of damage caused by one particular storm, which led to this review about expert sources, and the importance of precision in journalism.

    COMPLAINT

    You listed four deficiencies in the original version of a story headlined Canada's building code is getting a climate change rewrite. Is your home ready? which was published on April 11, 2019.
    The article concerned various proposals to create tougher standards for the construction of buildings and infrastructure projects in Canada. It explained to readers that governments are considering these changes in order to mitigate the expected impact of a changing climate.
    Two of your points prompted CBC News to make amendments to the article. One concerned wording that implied that predicted changes in extreme rainfall events had already been demonstrated. The other concerned the use of incorrect terminology to describe a backwater valve. Many homeowners will recognize this device which can decrease the risk of a sewage backup in their home.
    Your third point suggested the article should have more fully addressed the cost effectiveness of the various proposals.  In response, CBC News explained that this was outside of the scope of this particular article. 
    You were satisfied that those three points were properly addressed. However, on your fourth point, you requested a review. The remaining dispute relates to a section of the article which included an interview with Natalia Moudrak, Director of Climate Resilience at the University of Waterloo's Intact Centre. At one point she discussed the amount of damage caused to homes by flooding in Toronto.
    Here is the relevant excerpt of the article:
    While architects and construction workers grapple with reducing emissions from large buildings, average Canadians will face other problems. 
    "Flooding is the biggest challenge" linked to climate change for most homeowners, said Natalia Moudrak, director of climate resilience at the University of Waterloo's Intact Centre. 
    And there are measures homeowners can take now to safe address flooding.
    If a homeowner has a pump to get water out of a basement, "it's important to install a backup generator," she said. Widespread flooding often leads to power outages, leaving regular pumps useless when they're most needed.
    Homeowners can also take simple steps to elevate valuables, like expensive electronics, off their basement floor or put items in plastic or steel containers in case water does creep in, Moudrak said. 
    To prevent sewage from flowing into your home during a flood, David Foster, a spokesperson for the Canadian Home Builders' Association, recommends installing a backwater valve, a mechanical backflow prevention device linked to the plumbing and designed to allow water from sewer drains to only flow away from the home.
    "There is not a lot of cost involved in that, it just involves changing the way things are done," said Foster, who has consulted with the government on the new code. 
    When constructing a new home, installing a backwater valve costs roughly $400, Moudrak said. When retrofitting an existing home, it usually costs about $3,000. But municipalities often offer subsidies to help offset that expense.
    The problem, she said, is most people don't know about them.
    Only six per cent of Toronto homeowners took advantage of the city's flood resilience subsidy program, she said. When floods hit the city last year, she said the average cost to affected homeowners was $43,000.
    The sentence at the heart of your complaint is the very final one. You wrote that the $43,000 figure was “misstated”. It reflected the Intact Centre’s Toronto 2013 Flood Report, not the 2018 one (i.e. - the article states “last year”). You also suspected that the calculations of the estimate are based on studies done in the United States by the National Flood Insurance Program.
    You said more accurate numbers could be obtained from the CatIQ database, which you describe as “the definitive source for compiled flood damages from Canada’s insurance companies.” Based on the number of claims and total value of payouts from the 2018 storm, you suggested that a more accurate number was $18,509 rather than $43,000. You wrote:
    I believe that it is important to clarify given the fact that urban flooding is a significant issue, the costs of risk reduction are immense, and sound economic data and analysis is required to make evidence-based decisions on damage reduction management strategies. Flood damage data is a key piece of this economic data and many municipalities have cited the $43,000 value in federal infrastructure grant applications, which may not reflect actual damages, and could therefore adversely affect how scarce resources are allocated to address an important infrastructure challenge. 

    MANAGEMENT RESPONSE

    Paul Hambleton, the Director of Journalistic Standards and Practices, responded on behalf of CBC News:
    To be clear, the story quoted Natalia Moudrak, director of climate resilience at the University of Waterloo’s Intact Centre on Climate Adaptation: “When floods hit [Toronto] last year, she said the average cost to affected home owners was $43,000”. That information is also included in Weathering the Storm: Developing a Canadian Standard for Flood-Resilience in Existing Communities, a report published in January and co-authored by Ms. Moudrak.
    In a footnote, the report attributes that estimate to the Insurance Bureau of Canada (IBC) “based on Toronto flooding in 2013”. However, you wrote, the actual source is FEMA’s National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) cited in a July, 2012 story in Forbes. The story cites the interactive “Cost of Flooding” found on the NFIP page as estimating nearly $40,000 damage to a 2,000 sq. ft. home after a 6-inch flood.   
    It’s interesting to note that in looking at it now, almost seven years later, “Cost of Flooding” estimates damage of a little over $20,000 for a 1,000 sq. ft. home and about $52,000 to a 2,500 sq. ft. one-storey home. (There was no estimate for 2,000 sq. ft. home).
    It’s pretty clear that there is a range of estimates and, it seems, little public information about how those numbers were reached. But you have touched on an interesting issue here.
    On one level, while reporters can tell us what they see and hear, there are many things that they don’t witness or can’t know. In those instances they attribute the information. That way, readers know the source and can make their own judgment about its reliability. In this instance, we attributed the information to Ms. Moudrak, identifying her position and the organization she works for.

    REVIEW

    In a perfect world journalists would have expertise in every subject they cover. In the real world, many reporters, along with their editors, are generalists who strive to learn as much as they can in a short time so they can report faithfully and accurately on the subject at hand. 
    This means that there are times where they reasonably rely on subject experts to explain how something works, why something happens, or what might happen next. It might be a doctor, a realtor, or a marketing executive. In each case, the reporter looks to use their expertise as a way to improve the story with informed insights. 
    In such situations reporters willingly put themselves at the mercy of the expert’s knowledge. If an expert were to give bad information, CBC’s Journalistic Standards and Practices doesn’t let either of them off the hook. There is a section called “Responsibility and Accountability Related to Interviews” which reads as follows:
    CBC takes responsibility for the consequences of its decision to publish a person’s statements in the context it chooses. When we present a person’s statements in support of our reporting of facts, we ensure that the statements have been diligently checked. In the case of comments made by a person expressing an honest opinion, we ensure that the opinion is grounded in facts bearing on a matter of public interest.
    The interviewee also takes responsibility for his or her statement. As a general rule, we offer the interviewee no immunity or protection from the consequences of publication of the statements we gather.
    Sometimes the experts provide a recitation of facts, but not always. Often they are called on to analyze a situation or express an opinion related to their field. It is sensible that there is wide latitude in these cases for what constitutes reasonable comment. Realtors may disagree on which way the housing market is going. Marketers may clash over whether that new trend will fizzle. Doctors may have varying levels of enthusiasm for a prospective new drug.  
    The estimate of how much damage the average affected homeowner experienced during Toronto’s big summer storm of 2018 falls into this category of commentary and professional judgment. There is no single demonstrable number that has universal support, so the reporter went looking for someone to estimate the total.
    You disagreed with the Intact Centre’s methodology. Instead, you pointed to the CatIQ database, which is an excellent starting point. However, as you know, that database represents only the payouts insurance companies made to people who put in a claim. Others might think you should add in property damage not covered by the insurance policy, or people who opted not to file a claim. There are other expenses that could be considered as well. Should you include the value of time homeowners missed from work as a result? What about the cost of infrastructure repairs absorbed by government, or the cost of policing, firefighters and ambulance drivers? Should they be included or costed separately?
    Looked at through a different kind of prism, how much of the damage was caused by flooding, and how much was caused by wind, or by lightning? 
    Now, I recognize that you know a great deal about all these subjects. You have your own expertise, and you have told me about work you are doing that seeks to consider both direct and indirect costs to come up with a ratio of overall losses to insured losses. However, it is apparent that determining an estimate has at least some degree of subjectivity. 
    With all that in mind, it was acceptable journalistic practice for the CBC reporter to use the Intact Centre as its expert source and ask them to estimate the damage from a big storm. The Intact Centre is an applied research centre affiliated with the University of Waterloo. That may not bring it reputational immunity, but it does come with an inherent base level of credibility. The reporter was entitled to use Ms. Moudrak as an expert, so long as he attributed the estimate to her. I disagree with you that the JSP standard of “diligent checking” of her statement meant the reporter should have done extensive research to test that estimate. It is more reasonable to believe that diligent checking refers to facts that can be categorically confirmed or refuted, not to a matter of professional judgment such as this. 
    Nonetheless, you are correct that the number in the story WAS the wrong number, regardless of the quality of the estimate. The $43,000 figure did not represent the Intact Centre’s estimate for the 2018 Toronto storm, but instead was their estimate for the 2013 Toronto storm - something raised by you in your complaint, acknowledged by Mr. Hambleton in his response, and confirmed in my own communication with Ms. Moudrak.
    That this was wrong is, naturally, a violation of policy. That it has not been corrected means it continues to be so. It does not matter whether the original misunderstanding was caused by the source or by the journalist. It ought to be clarified for the record, and for the readers. 
    Further, I noted while reviewing the story that there is no note on the web page acknowledging the two other corrections prompted by your initial complaint. This is a second violation of policy.   
    I have a broader concern that there is a pattern of imprecision in CBC’s coverage relating to flood events. You provided me with a list of other recent CBC stories which make reference to the $43,000 damage estimate. Several confuse the matter by not indicating this is a specific estimate for the 2013 Toronto floods. One said, “The average basement flood in Ontario costs the homeowner $43,000.” Another said, “The average payout for a flooded basement is $43,000 and rising.”  These types of references take a single (and unusual) event in 2013 and treat it as if it is now a generic standard.
    Reporters and editors need to ensure they understand what's included (and what's not) in any estimates provided, and they need to ensure that they associate that estimate with the correct event - or events, as the case may be. Based on my review, that is not happening consistently enough. 
    All of this needs to be distinguished from your belief that the Intact Centre’s $43,000 estimate to be incorrect, even when attributed to the 2013 storm. I would encourage CBC News to take your perspective into account, but that is as far as I will go. It is not my intention to take sides on the quality of the Intact Centre’s estimate. If journalists continue to find the Intact Centre credible, they continue to be free to consult them for stories.
    Sincerely,
    Jack Nagler
    CBC Ombudsman

    Office of the Ombudsman, French Services, CBC/Radio-Canada Review - How to mitigate the effects of flood damage from climate change and Response to a climate change story, Guy Gendron, January 28, 2019


    A pdf of the following review is available at this link: view pdf (English)
    The decision (French version) is available here: https://cbc.radio-canada.ca/fr/ombudsman/revisions/2019-01-28

    ***

    Review by the Office of the Ombudsman, French Services, CBC/Radio-Canada of two complaints asserting that the articles by journalist Marc Montgomery entitled How to mitigate the effects of flood damage from climate change and Response to a climate change story, posted on September 19 and November 19, 2018, respectively by Radio Canada international (RCI), failed to comply with the CBC/Radio-Canada Journalistic Standards and Practices regarding accuracy and impartiality.

    FOREWORD

    This case involves English-language news articles and interviews posted to the Radio Canada international (RCI) website under the titles How to mitigate the effects of flood damage from climate change1 and Response to a climate change story2. The complaints, the responses by RCI, and the many supporting documents submitted by each party were also written in English. Complaints concerning RCI, regardless of broadcast language, are the purview of the CBC/Radio-Canada French Services Ombudsman; that is why I have reviewed them. This review was initially written in French before being translated into English.

    COMPLAINT

    The complainant, Mr. Robert Muir, is an Ontario engineer with a long career in flood risk mitigation as a consultant and municipal engineer. On October 7, 2018, he wrote to the Office of the Ombudsman to report what he believed to be errors in the article posted on the RCI site on September 19, 2018. The article was condensed from an interview with Mr. Blair Feltmate, head of the Intact Centre on Climate Adaptation at the University of Waterloo and the lead investigator for a study commissioned by the Insurance Bureau of Canada (IBC).

    In Mr. Muir’s view, the interview and the article contained erroneous data on trends in precipitation in Canada – specifically regarding episodes of extreme rainfall so intense that they are considered to occur at 100-year intervals. In addition, Mr. Muir complained that the article cited no sources to corroborate Dr. Feltmate’s theory, which holds that climate change is the reason why extreme rainfall events have become more frequent in Canada. The complainant further alleged that another of Dr. Feltmate’s claims was incorrect, namely that preservation and creation of wetlands (ponds, marshes, etc.) in urban and near-urban areas are economically advantageous and easy-to-implement measures for reducing flood risk. Mr. Muir added that the Ontario Society of Professional Engineers, of which he is a member, had previously voiced its disagreement on this issue to Natalia Moudrak, co-author of a report produced last year by Dr. Feltmate on the value of natural infrastructure.




    2


    Citing several expert studies and national data from Environment Canada, the complainant asserted that “there has been no change in extreme rainfall statistics in southern Ontario, and in fact many decreasing trends.” This, he wrote, contradicted Dr. Feltmate’s theory that there is a correlation between climate change and increased flood damage. Mr. Muir therefore asked that the article be amended to reflect this.

    To further substantiate his position, the complainant noted that he had been successful in a similar complaint filed with the CBC English Services Ombudsman in 2015, and four complaints against three insurance companies (Intact Financial, Aviva Canada and RSA) before Advertising Standards Canada, which had forced the insurers to amend their claims regarding the frequency of storms. He added that the media should be wary of statements by insurance companies as well as claims by researchers such as Dr. Feltmate, who is not a climatologist, and whose research is funded by an insurance provider.

    As the procedure dictates, I began by asking RCI management to respond to the complainant.


    RESPONSE FROM NEWS DEPARTMENT

    On October 24, 2018, Mr. Soleïman Mellali, Web Editor-in-Chief, RCI, replied to Mr. Muir in a very long message containing some twenty citations and links to many news articles and reports from various bodies, covering multiple aspects relating to climate change as well as precipitation.

    The response from RCI began with an acknowledgement that the key assertion of the article in question – that 100-year extreme rainfall events are now happening just a few years apart – was “neither entirely true, nor entirely wrong.” As a result, Mr. Mellali wrote, the article had been amended to read as follows:

    “Scientists consulted on this question generally concluded that while actual rainfall amounts in Canada have not varied much, when, where and how they occur have.”

    RCI added that other weather anomalies, like sudden episodes of warm temperatures resulting in early snow melting, have combined to cause record flooding in recent years.

    I see no use in listing here the majority of the points in the response, as they consist mainly of a list of excerpts from reports and news articles that establish a link between global warming and weather phenomena around the world – e.g., hurricanes, rising temperatures, heat waves – which was not the subject of the complaint.

    The other references deal with the impacts of such phenomena: drought, forest fires, coastal erosion, destruction of crops, and increases in damage claims to insurance companies. Many of the studies cited are forward-looking; that is, they predict future changes. While interesting, this information is not germane to the issue raised in the complaint: the assertion that climate change has led to increased extreme rainfall in Canada, which in turn is allegedly the main reason for increased property damage from flooding.


    3


    Only one other point in the response is truly relevant to my review of the issue raised, and that is a statement attributed to Xuebin Zhang, a Senior Research Scientist with Environment Canada. This was not mentioned, but it was drawn from email correspondence between journalist Marc Montgomery, the author of the article in question, and this Canadian climate expert. Dr. Zhang wrote:

    “Annual mean precipitation has increased, on average, in Canada, with a larger percent increase in northern Canada. For Canada as a whole, observational evidence of changes in extreme precipitation is lacking. However, in the future, extreme precipitation is projected to increase in a warmer climate.”

    Later, the RCI response quotes Dr. Feltmate, who was asked to provide counter-arguments to the Mr. Muir’s complaint that no evidence was provided for the claim that extreme precipitation is increasing in Canada. According to Dr. Feltmate, a decrease in the number of Environment Canada recording stations is the reason why many local climatological events go undetected. Dr. Feltmate wrote:

    “Thus, it can be misleading to depend singularly on Environment Canada recording stations to document precipitation events that lead to flooding.”

    Lastly, Mr. Mellali concluded his response by inviting the complainant to be interviewed by RCI, to give him the opportunity to have his point of view heard.

    REPONSE FROM MR. MUIR

    On the same day RCI’s response was received, October 24, 2018, the complainant responded that he was not satisfied with it. He noted that the correction made to the article did not address his complaint regarding the inaccuracy of the original statement that 100-year extreme precipitation events are now more frequent in Canada. Mr. Muir persisted in asking RCI to produce data to prove this.

    Mr. Muir added that climate change has resulted in less snow accumulation during the winter, which in turn has limited spring flooding. He therefore wondered what data RCI was using in support of its reply that melting snow now leads to record levels of flooding.

    The complainant wrote that the latest Engineering Climate Datasets show a slight decrease (of 0.2%) in the overall intensity of rainfall and in no change as concerns 100-year extreme rainfall events. Storms of more modest intensity – classified as events with return periods of between 2 and 25 years – are those that have seen the most marked decrease, he added. It is these data that engineers use to design municipal infrastructures, Mr. Muir wrote, asking that RCI disclose what data it used to support the new claim added to the article: that “while actual rainfall amounts in Canada have not varied much, when, where and how they occur have.” In the absence of concrete data on “when,” “where” and “how” rainfall is changing, Mr. Muir requested that the article be amended once more to acknowledge that the RCI interviewee (Dr. Feltmate) had no evidence to support his claim, and that it was mere speculation on his part.


    4


    As to Dr. Feltmate’s statement, included in RCI’s response, that the absence of data is attributable to an insufficient number of Environment Canada recording stations, the complainant asked the following questions:

    “Are you suggesting that there is not enough data to prove decreasing trends in rainfall but there is enough to prove increasing trends? How can you have it one way?”

    Lastly, Mr. Muir disputed the accuracy of a sentence in the article, which begins “As costs mount to deal with the huge financial burden and loss due to floods [. . .] .” In his opinion, the increase in damage claims made to insurers is attributable to all instances of bad weather, as well as fires, while those resulting solely from flooding have not seen any marked increase, if one excludes one “anomaly” in 2013.

    In conclusion, the complainant accepted RCI’s invitation to be interviewed so that he could outline his concerns in more detail and explain why he found the response from RCI unsatisfactory.

    INTERVIEW WITH MR. MUIR AND ACCOMPANYING ARTICLE

    On November 2, 2018, Mr. Mellali formally repeated his invitation to Mr. Muir to be interviewed by journalist Marc Montgomery. The interview was recorded on November 15 and posted online on November 19, along with an article entitled Response to a climate change story.3

    SECOND COMPLAINT BY MR. MUIR

    Two days later, on November 21, 2018, as well as the following day, Mr. Muir again wrote to Mr. Mellali, asking that multiple corrections be made to the article accompanying his interview.

    The complainant began by stating that the interview had mainly concerned extreme rainfall intensity data, but that the article was illustrated with a graphic of annual precipitation, which is a different subject.

    Mr. Muir went on to say that the text of the story implied that his remarks on the lack of any trend toward increased extreme precipitation had to do with “one local region only” (southern Ontario). In fact, he wrote, this is not that case, as proved by the matters that he had brought to the attention of Advertising Standards Canada regarding three insurance companies. In that regard, he reiterated that, in spite of his repeated entreaties, RCI had still not provided national data on extreme precipitation that would support the idea that they are increasing across Canada. He added that he had nevertheless quoted, during his interview, an excerpt from an Environment Canada paper confirming no increase in extreme precipitation across the entire country. He attached to his complaint a link to the study report in question, which dates from 2014.

    Mr. Muir also asked that the article include a reference to an open letter in which the Ontario Society of Professional Engineers discounted the lBC / Intact Centre report on wetlands for urban flood mitigation.

    3 http://www.rcinet.ca/en/2018/11/19/response-to-a-climate-change-story/


    5


    His request was based on the fact that the article accompanying his interview “cherry-picks” from that IBC report – written, he points out, by a University of Waterloo biologist.4 The report, he added, was not peer-reviewed, is therefore “not a professional document,” and is “not the type of material CBC should be referring to for advice on infrastructure, or advice on flood mitigation.” Moreover, he wrote, page 2 of the report includes a disclaimer whereby the Intact Centre makes no warranty as to the accuracy of the information contained in its report.

    In a second message, on November 22, 2018, Mr. Muir expressed doubt about the truthfulness of the second paragraph of the article accompanying his interview. It reads:

    “Here in Canada, the Insurance Bureau of Canada in a commissioned report said its payouts from natural disasters have doubled every five years since 1980, and the majority of those claims are from flooding due in large part to climate change.”

    In the complainant’s opinion, that claim is false. He maintained that the IBC data show that fewer than a third of claims since the early 1980s have been for flooding due to rainstorms, electrical storms or hurricanes. In addition, he wrote, “[t]he data also shows that the proportion of water damage as a percentage of total catastrophic losses is decreasing over the past 10 years.”

    Mr. Muir therefore wondered how a “majority of claims” could possibly be from flooding if less than a total of the claims were for water damage, and how the increase in claims could be attributable to climate change if Environment Canada data show no significant increase in extreme precipitation. In his opinion, other factors besides increased heavy rainfall explain the increasing trends in flood-related damages, and those factors are related not to meteorology (storm extremes) but to hydrology (land-use planning). In his opinion, the RCI article perpetuates the “disproved . . . theory/concept” of the insurance industry, which is “not based on any real data.”

    As required by the procedure, and because this was a new complaint concerning a different article, although related to the first, I asked RCI to respond.

    SECOND RESPONSE FROM RCI

    On December 4, 2018, Mr. Soleïman Mellali, Web Editor-in-Chief, RCI, wrote to the complainant acknowledging that the graphic of annual rainfall used to illustrate the article about the interview with Mr. Muir “[did] not fully relate to the interview” and that it would therefore be removed.

    Regarding the other matters raised in the complaint, RCI confined its response to one of them only, defending Dr. Blair Feltmate’s qualifications. Mr. Mellali began by forwarding an explanation by Dr. Feltmate regarding the disclaimer in the report he authored about using wetlands for urban flood mitigation. The researcher wrote:

    “Scores of scientists, engineers, conservation authorities, insurers, etc., review and sign off on every paper published by the Intact Centre. The legal disclaimer we add is a legal requirement by the University of Waterloo.”

    4 Said biologist being Dr. Blair Feltmate of the Intact Centre.


    6


    In its response, RCI added that Dr. Feltmate, “a recognised world expert on climate adaptation,” had been invited to Europe to give a presentation at the Global Commission on Adaptation, chaired by Ban Ki-moon; asked by the Government of Canada to chair the Pan-Canadian Framework on Clean Growth and Climate Change – Expert Panel on Adaptation; and invited by the Ontario Society of Professional Engineers to give a presentation at a 2019 working meeting.

    RCI also noted that it had submitted the initial article and the interview with Dr. Feltmate to Dr. Neil Comer, a well-known climatologist and adjunct professor at the University of Toronto, for review. Dr. Comer wrote:

    “I certainly did not read, nor hear from Blair [Feltmate] in this link, anything approaching unreasonable from a purely climatological aspect.”

    REQUEST FOR REVIEW

    On the same day RCI’s response was received, December 4, 2018, Mr. Muir wrote to the Office of the Ombudsman to request a review of the matter.

    He began by referring again to the Insurance Bureau of Canada and Intact Centre report on wetlands for urban flood mitigation mentioned in the article accompanying the interview with him. In his opinion, by referring to that report, RCI was “promoting positions on matters that [the report’s authors] are not licensed to formally advance.” “Real engineering studies,” he wrote, “do not have disclaimers saying they are not professional advice.”

    Mr. Muir then took the opportunity to ask for clarifications regarding Dr. Feltmate’s claim that the Intact Centre’s reports are reviewed and approved by experts. In Mr. Muir’s opinion, there is no “formal sign-off” procedure, but rather a list of persons consulted in preparing the reports, and this is not to be confused with “formal peer review.”

    Two days later, on December 6, Mr. Muir wrote the Office of the Ombudsman again to reiterate that there is no formal process of approval for Intact Centre reports, and to emphasize that in the two study reports that are the subject of this matter (2017 and 2018), there are not even any lists acknowledging who may have been consulted. He added that there was no “general consultation” involved in the preparation of the two reports. “Unfortunately,” he concluded, “CBC is taking insurance industry-funded ‘glossy’ reports to be equivalent to formal technical information but they are not.”

    REVIEW5

    This case is needlessly complicated. The two parties have taken it in directions that they ought not to have, and as a result, reviewing it has become tremendously tedious.





    5  http://www.ombudsman.cbc.radio-canada.ca/en/about/mandate/


    7


    At its core, the matter is relatively simple. Examination of the complaints invokes the accuracy and balance principles of the CBC/Radio-Canada Journalistic Standards and Practices (JSP6):

    “Accuracy

    We seek out the truth in all matters of public interest. We invest our time and our skills to learn, understand and clearly explain the facts to our audience. The production techniques we use serve to present the content in a clear and accessible manner.”

    Balance

    We contribute to informed debate on issues that matter to Canadians by reflecting a diversity of opinion. Our content on all platforms presents a wide range of subject matter and views.

    On issues of controversy, we ensure that divergent views are reflected respectfully, taking into account their relevance to the debate and how widely held these views are. We also ensure that they are represented over a reasonable period of time.”

    My review of the complaints will also refer to part of the CBC/Radio-Canada mission statement7 quoted in the introduction to the JSP, which calls upon the public broadcaster to “act responsibly and to be accountable”:

    “To act responsibly and to be accountable

    We are aware of the impact of our work and are honest with our audiences. We do not hesitate to correct any mistake when necessary nor to follow up a story when a situation changes significantly. We do not plagiarize. (…)”

    Study of the complaint

    Mr. Muir’s initial complaint concerned, essentially, the accuracy of two pieces of information in the article that accompanied the interview with Dr. Feltmate. First, that episodes of extreme rainfall, those considered to occur once every 100 years, are now sometimes occurring only a few years apart; second, the researcher’s claim that preserving and creating wetlands (e.g., ponds, marshes, etc.) in urban and near-urban areas are economically advantageous measures for reducing flood risk.

    The complainant also lamented the article’s lack of sources that would corroborate the main point made by Dr. Feltmate in his interview: that climate change has led to extreme rainfall events becoming more frequent in Canada. The quote is as follows:

    “We are experiencing storms of greater magnitude, more volume of rain coming down over short periods of time these days due to climate change. That is causing massive flooding.”


    6  http://www.cbc.radio-canada.ca/en/reporting-to-canadians/acts-and-policies/programming/journalism/

    7  http://www.cbc.radio-canada.ca/en/reporting-to-canadians/acts-and-policies/programming/journalism/


    8


    Mr. Muir stated that Environment Canada data show that “there has been no change in extreme rainfall statistics in southern Ontario, and in fact many decreasing trends.” He also cited the response to a complaint that he made to CBC on a similar topic in November 2015, in which the public broadcaster acknowledged, after checking with Environment Canada, that “[t]here has been no significant change in rainfall events over several decades.”

    Regarding the second part of his complaint, Mr. Muir noted that the Ontario Society of Professional Engineers has publicly presented its opposition to Dr. Feltmate’s opinion, which is stated in a 2017 report on flood risk mitigation measures.

    The response to these criticisms could – and should – have been a simple one.

    Let us first examine the contentious sentence in question. It reads:

    “So called ‘100 year events’ are now occurring sometimes only a few years apart.”

    That would be an accurate statement if the article was considering all climate-related events – including tornadoes, droughts, heat waves, and forest fires – but that is clearly not the case here. First of all, the article is about flooding, as can be seen from the many photographs illustrating it; furthermore, the sentence immediately preceding the contentious sentence reads:

    “In recent years, the news has been full of stories of bigger and more violent storms, and massive rainfall and flooding.”

    Thus, when the article goes on to mention “so-called ‘100 year events,’” it is clear that the events being referred to are episodes of extreme rainfall.

    One only had to examine the official Environment Canada data for Ontario as well as for the entire country to acknowledge that the claim made in the article was inaccurate. Such acknowledgement would at the same time have addressed the complainant’s criticism regarding the lack of data to corroborate Dr. Feltmate’s claim about the increased frequency of extreme rainfall events in Canada. To make that correction, and for it to be meaningful, the writer would no doubt have had to change more than just the sentence in question – which, I admit, would have contradicted, in part, the theory described in the article and the accompanying interview with Dr. Feltmate. Thus the first two sentences in the article, after being amended transparently, per best practices, would have been replaced by something along these lines:

    “Although in recent years the news has been full of stories of bigger and more violent storms, and massive rainfall and flooding, there is nothing to prove that this type of precipitation event has been on the rise in Canada. Data compiled by Environment Canada since the 1950s show that there has been no significant change in their frequency.”

    An insert should then have been added, explaining that the previous version of the article, as well as part of the interview with Dr. Feltmate, contained inaccuracies in that respect, and that this prompted RCI to publish the clarification.


    9


    In addition, the date of the most recent update (in this case, the correction) should have been added at the head of the article, next to the original posting date. Of course, all of this would have affected the article’s overall credibility. That is not the intended aim; rather, it is a consequence of the inaccuracy pivotal to the article and the accompanying interview.

    Admitting that an error has been found in an article is no cause for shame, and is not tantamount to an admission of professional misconduct. It is possible for an interviewee to make a false claim, whether inadvertently or otherwise, and for it to escape the notice of a journalist or host. Dr. Feltmate has a PhD, is the head of the Intact Centre on Climate Adaptation at the University of Waterloo, where he teaches in the Faculty of Environment, and is the lead author of a study commissioned by the Insurance Bureau of Canada, which was the subject of the interview by journalist Marc Montgomery. It was not unreasonable for the latter to quote the interviewee’s remarks in the brief article accompanying the interview, even if in the process he involuntarily conveyed incorrect information from the interviewee. I remind the reader that this was not a story contrasting differing views on an issue, let along an investigative piece: it was an interview in which the author of a study report outlined its main conclusions.

    Rather that rectify the error by clearly acknowledging it through an explicit note in the text of the online article, as best practices dictate, RCI chose to work around the problem. It wrote to the complainant that the sentence at issue was “neither entirely true, nor entirely wrong,” removed it from the text of the online article without providing any explanation to readers, and replaced it with a sentence that had no real connection to the complaint:

    “Scientists consulted on this question generally concluded that while actual rainfall amounts in Canada have not varied much, when, where and how they occur have.”

    The matter at hand here, however, is not increased total annual precipitation; as it is not total rainfall in one year that can cause infrastructure overflow problems, and therefore flooding, but episodes of extreme rainfall, or exceptional spring floods. (I will refrain from commenting here on all of the other factors related to land-use planning that may in large part explain increased flooding.) Once again, what should have been acknowledged was that the original text said that extreme rainfall events were increasing – a claim refuted by Environment Canada data.

    A study8 published by the Environment Canada Climate Research Division, which examined data from 1953 to 2012, found that “[n]o consistent changes were found in heavy rainfall events.”

    In my view, the response provided by RCI did not amount to a correction, but a substitution, which does not comply with the values of transparency and accuracy articulated in the JSP, specifically in the section that calls on CBC/Radio-Canada to “act responsibly and to be accountable.” All the more so given that the amendment to the article was not accompanied by any real explanation; only a note at the very end, which reads as follows and does not at all appear to constitute acknowledgement that the original text contained a significant inaccuracy:




    8 https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/07055900.2015.1086970


    10


    “[T]his article has been modified to include citations from experts (Zhang, Mann, Flannigan) regarding the intensity and frequency of warming and extreme climate related events.”

    Moreover, whereas RCI informed the complainant, in its response, that the article had been amended such that the sentence he had complained about had been replaced with another, in fact five new paragraphs were added to the text. They deal with climate change around the world and its effect on droughts, heat spells, wildfires, hurricanes in the United States, and the increase in extreme rainfall events that is predicted to accompany warmer global temperatures. Here again, this failed to address the complaint made by Mr. Muir, who had not questioned the existence of climate change; he had merely asserted that there is no proof that climate change has led to increased extreme rainfall episodes in Canada, as Dr. Feltmate claimed.

    The admission that rising global temperatures have not had that effect in Canada is not a denial that those temperature increases are happening. The response by RCI to Mr. Muir’s complaint, however, gives the impression that this is how the complaint was construed – hence the abundance of file attachments and links to articles and studies attesting to the reality of global warming, and still others predicting that it will in the future result in increased extreme rainfall. I note the inclusion, buried in the middle of the lengthy response from RCI, of an excerpt from email correspondence with Xuebin Zhang, Senior Research Scientist, Environment Canada. He is, incidentally, one of the authors of the Environment Canada study cited above. Dr. Zhang wrote to journalist Marc Montgomery, while the latter was preparing his draft response to the complaint, that:

    “For Canada as a whole, observational evidence of changes in extreme precipitation is lacking.”

    I must take RCI to task for not having drawn the obvious conclusion regarding the truthfulness of the sentence that Mr. Muir complained about.

    As regards Mr. Muir’s second grievance, I do not believe it is up to RCI to arbitrate a dispute between the Ontario Society of Professional Engineers and a university research centre about whether it is appropriate to mitigate flooding by rehabilitating wetlands in urban and near-urban areas. Dr. Feltmate – a biologist – advocates that solution; Mr. Muir and the Ontario Society of Professional Engineers do not share his opinion. RCI cited excerpts from the reports by the Intact Centre accurately, without endorsing those conclusions. Furthermore, Mr. Muir had the opportunity – two opportunities, in fact – to speak out and restate the facts as he sees them. First, RCI published four comments by him below the initial article. Then, RCI invited him to be interviewed to react to Dr. Feltmate’s claims.

    Further considerations

    In his reply to the first response from RCI, the complainant disputed some of its contents; for example, the assertion that spring floods are now more severe because of climate change.


    11


    I will refrain from commenting on these secondary issues, as they do not concern the contents of either of the RCI articles, but rather the correspondence between RCI and Mr. Muir. I feel the case is already complex enough and there is no need to make it more so.

    Second complaint

    I note first of all that Mr. Muir did not complain about the interview per se, nor about its tone or the nature of the questions asked of him by Mr. Montgomery. His comments were limited to the contents of the accompanying article,9 entitled Response to a climate change story, posted on November 19, 2018.

    Mr. Muir complained that the article contained a graphic illustrating increases in annual rainfall in Canada, which he deemed irrelevant because the interview (and indeed his complaint about the first article) was about data on extreme rainfall events: this was the fundamental objection, the reason for his dispute with RCI. I note with satisfaction that RCI acknowledged the merits of that complaint and consequently removed the graphic. Unfortunately, in removing it RCI did not follow best practices with regard to transparency. First, no date was provided to show when the article had been updated; more important still, the note added at the foot of the article to explain the change appears to me to be unduly insincere. It states: “the story has been modified to remove a graphic from Environment Canada deemed not entirely relevant to the interview.” Acknowledging an error in this manner (saying “not entirely” merely pays lip service to the issue) is counter to the requirements of the JSP. The graphic was irrelevant, period.

    Next, Mr. Muir complained that the article implied that his statement about the lack of any trend toward increased extreme rainfall concerned only one region, southern Ontario. Two sentences are at issue here. The first stated: Mr. Muir “maintains that in his region of southern Ontario, rainfall levels are decreasing [. . .] .” Later, the article adds:

    “It is entirely possible that small localised areas may experience different situations from the global trend which points to human activity causing substantial climatic changes in weather patterns and increasing damage to infrastructure.”

    Considering the complainant’s repeated requests that RCI acknowledge that it was false to claim that extreme rainfall episodes are on the rise, whether in southern Ontario or across Canada; considering the multiple documentation he provided to RCI in support of that position; and considering RCI’s clear and repeated refusals to acknowledge the error, I must conclude that Mr. Muir was justified in interpreting those two sentences as a further attempt to downplay his point of view and even distort its meaning. First, by scaling it down to a simple regional perspective, and then by once again confusing the concepts of extreme rainfall events and overall precipitation. I sought to understand the source of this muddled situation. The journalist, Marc Montgomery, frankly admitted that he had decided from the start that he would “not give an inch” to the complainant. That attitude, unfortunately, violates the JSP, specifically the section that calls on CBC/Radio-Canada employees to “act responsibly and to be accountable,” which goes on to say “we [. . .] are honest [and we] do not hesitate to correct any mistake [. . .] .”

    9 http://www.rcinet.ca/en/2018/11/19/response-to-a-climate-change-story/


    12


    A further aspect of Mr. Muir’s second complaint is his request that the article about his interview contain a link to a document from the Ontario Society of Professional Engineers that discounts the IBC and Intact Centre report on wetlands for urban flood mitigation (produced in 2017 by the Intact Centre and largely written by Dr. Feltmate). RCI refused to comply with that request.

    Under normal circumstances, I too would have refused. The choice of the angle and key points of a story is the prerogative of the editorial staff. There will always be people ready to say that a news story should have covered such-and-such an issue, should have mentioned an aspect that was not, or should have provided another perspective. Regardless of the merits of such criticisms, they would – if accommodated – deny one of the core elements of freedom of the press: the freedom to choose the topic of a story and in turn to determine what aspects are worth including in that story.

    In the case that concerns us, however, I believe that Mr. Muir’s request was justified, considering once again the manner in which he was presented: as nothing more than a municipal engineer concerned only with data about the region he is familiar with, which may be a statistical anomaly; a man who nevertheless opposes the conclusions of a serious academic study supported by the Canadian insurance industry and those of the most recent report of the Environmental Commissioner of Ontario on the importance of preserving wetlands as a means of preventing flooding in urban areas. The document from the Ontario Society of Professional Engineers, however, clearly shows that Mr. Muir’s objections are not merely a matter of his opinion. The letter, signed by the organization’s president, states that “green infrastructure comes with high lifecycle costs and is not considered an effective measure for achieving flood resiliency under severe rainfall.”10

    I wrote above that it is not within the Ombudsman’s purview to referee this technical debate pitting the insurance industry–funded studies of the Intact Centre on one side against Ontario’s civil engineers on the other. I also believe that it is not up to RCI to take a position on the issue, unless its opinion were the conclusion of an in-depth journalistic investigation. We are a long way from that. And yet, taken together, the two RCI articles and the many links accompanying them, all of which are to documents substantiating Dr. Feltmate’s view, give the reader the impression that the case has been tried and Mr. Muir is an isolated voice preaching in the desert. This is not consistent with the balance principle of the JSP, which states:

    “On issues of controversy, we ensure that divergent views are reflected respectfully, taking into account their relevance to the debate and how widely held these views are.”

    In the case that concerns us, it stands to reason that the position of engineers – those who design water drainage infrastructures – is entirely relevant with regard to the usefulness and effectiveness of the measures advocated by Dr. Feltmate. It is true that Mr. Muir had the opportunity to express that position in the interview that he gave to RCI. That should therefore have been all the more reason for the article introducing the interview to be accompanied by a link to the letter as a “supporting document.” Ultimately, had there been no link at the foot of the article, the absence of the supporting document would be understandable.

    10 https://drive.google.com/file/d/1id4WZSTWP57WhG2k8SnlD1l2Y32gsqxF/view


    13


    But there are nearly ten such links, each pointing to documents that appear to be there to undermine Mr. Muir’s position, which compounds the overall lack of balance here.

    Speaking of missing links, I note that RCI had failed to include, in the original article, a referral to the second one, despite the fact that it is a follow-up. When I mentioned this omission to them as part of our discussions about this complaint, RCI management told me it had resulted from an error in communication. They had asked that the referral be included; they told me the correction would be made immediately, and it was. However, the link to the “follow-up” is so discreet that there is little chance of it being noticed. It is written as follows:

    “Counterpoint response to the IBC study- RCI: Nov 19/18.”

    Can the average reader be expected to grasp, from those few words, that they constitute a hyperlink to a follow-up to the RCI article they are reading? Will they understand that the main theory being asserted in the article they are reading has been discounted by the official body representing Ontario’s engineers? Will they suspect that the existence of the data on which the article is founded – Dr. Feltmate’s claim that extreme rainfall events are on the rise in Canada – is challenged in the follow-up article? I do not think so, and that is why I believe once again that this further correction was inconsistent with best practices and does not live up to the “honesty” principle of the JSP.

    The reference to the Insurance Bureau of Canada report

    Mr. Muir also challenged the accuracy of the second paragraph of the article accompanying his interview:

    “Here in Canada, the Insurance Bureau of Canada in a commissioned report said its payouts from natural disasters have doubled every five years since 1980, and the majority of those claims are from flooding due in large part to climate change.”

    He stated that this assertion is false, advancing several arguments that cast doubt on the accuracy, not of the sentence, but of the information it contains. Allow me to explain: while it is true that a report of the Insurance Bureau of Canada states these things, that does not mean they are true. Thus Mr. Muir was not questioning the journalist’s text so much as the report that it describes. This situation resembles the first point of his first complaint, in which he criticized the article accompanying the interview with Dr. Feltmate for perpetuating inaccurate information about an increase in episodes of extreme rainfall in Canada.

    In its response to the second complaint, RCI did not address that grievance, and merely defended Dr. Feltmate’s qualifications by listing the conferences at which he has been invited to speak. In my opinion this did not do justice to the seriousness of the arguments put forward by Mr. Muir, which by that time he had shared with RCI. Yes, the sentence in question is rigorously accurate in that it properly represents the position of the Insurance Bureau of Canada, but the fact that it appears in the introduction to the article about the interview with Mr. Muir, without noting that Mr. Muir disagrees with all of its points, appears to me to contradict the balance principle of the JSP.


    14


    It seems to me that there are two possible solutions for correcting this situation: remove that paragraph from the text of the article and attach an explanation for the change, or retain the paragraph but follow it immediately with an account of the Mr. Muir’s objections to the Insurance Bureau of Canada’s statements.

    The scientific validity of the information reported

    Finally, the two parties in this affair debated the scientific validity of the Intact Centre’s reports. Were they peer reviewed or not? How many peers took part? Does the presence of a disclaimer of responsibility in the reports mean they have no scientific value? And if so, should RCI have refrained from citing them? In Mr. Muir’s opinion, RCI was promoting positions of the Insurance Bureau of Canada report authors, who were “not licensed to formally advance” them. In short, he wrote, RCI was “taking insurance industry-funded ‘glossy’ reports to be equivalent to formal technical information.”

    On this point, I cannot find in favour of the complainant. Information reported in the media comes from a wide variety of sources. It does not have to be scientifically validated by a peer-review process; in fact, it rarely is. Any citizen, association or interest group is entitled to speak their mind, defend their point of view and engage in public debate. In doing so, they are not required to have their positions approved beforehand by a panel of scientists. And it is a good thing they are not, one might well argue; otherwise citizens’ freedom of expression would be greatly constrained. I therefore reject Mr. Muir’s contention that RCI should report only the assertions of “licensed” experts.

    CONCLUSION

    The two articles by journalist Marc Montgomery entitled How to mitigate the effects of flood damage from climate change and Response to a climate change story, posted online on September 19 and November 19, 2018, respectively by Radio Canada international (RCI), failed to comply with the CBC/Radio-Canada Journalistic Standards and Practices (JSP) regarding accuracy and impartiality. The corrections eventually made to the two articles were not compliant with best practices, and violated the JSP principles on correction of errors and honesty.

    As a result of the multiple shortcomings noted in my examination of this matter, I am recommending that Radio-Canada review the RCI complaints processing procedure; provide training on the JSP to RCI staff; make the necessary corrections to the two articles in question so as to restore the accuracy and balance that are lacking; clearly indicate in the two articles that they were the subject of a review by the Office of the Ombudsman and include a link to that review; and, lastly, publish a notice of correction in the Mises au point (Erratum) section of the Radio-Canada website.

    Guy Gendron

    Ombudsman, French Services, CBC/Radio-Canada

    January 28, 2019

    ***

    The Ombudsman has found additional violations of CBC's JSP on the same topic by the same journalist - this has resulted in Radio Canada management deleting the story that mistakenly 'confirmed' that extreme rainfall was more severe.  Please see this post: https://www.cityfloodmap.com/2020/11/radio-canada-ombudsman-finds-standards.html