Adjusting IDF Curves to Account for Climate Change

The following page "IDF Curves and Climate Change" is presented at climatedata.ca and describes a methodology for adjusting rainfall design intensities for future conditions. The need to account for future conditions in long-term planning is noted in Environment and Climate Change Canada's Engineering Climate Datasets IDF Files:



Past changes in IDF values have been reviewed in a previous post: https://www.cityfloodmap.com/2020/07/how-have-rainfall-intensities-changed.html

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Learning Zone
Topic 6: Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) Curves
IDF Curves and Climate Change

It is not appropriate to use IDF curves based on historical information alone for long-term planning. To account for climate change impacts to extreme rainfall, ECCC recommends use of a scaling methodology to adjust IDF curves. Read this article for additional information about integrating climate change into IDF curves, including a practical example.

TIME TO COMPLETION
5 min

Summary

IDF curves are an important tool for decision-making about risks of extreme precipitation, but climate change is expected to increase extreme rainfall in Canada. Because of this, IDF curves based on historical observations alone are not appropriate for long-term decision-making. To account for climate change impacts to extreme rainfall and IDF curves, Environment and Climate Change Canada recommends use of a scaling methodology.

Climate change has intensified extreme rainfall events in North America and is projected to do so even further in future. However, projecting future rainfall metrics shown on IDF figures remains challenging due to sparse extreme rainfall observations, challenges in modelling local extreme rain events, and climate variability.

Due to the challenges described in the Primer on Climate Change and Extreme Precipitation, both climate models and statistical tools have limitations in their ability to project future short duration rainfall events. This is described in more detail in CSA PLUS 4013:2019: Technical Guide: Development, Interpretation And Use Of Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) Information along with corresponding guidance for practitioners.

However, a relationship between warming temperatures and precipitation extremes provides an alternate means for adjusting historical IDF curves. This ‘temperature scaling’ method is being increasingly used to estimate future Canadian rainfall extremes.  It is described in CSA PLUS 4013 and is being used to develop future rainfall estimates for the National Building Code of Canada and Canadian Highway Bridge Design Code.

Temperature scaling provides a simple and robust way to update IDF curves for climate change.  However, careful consideration of uncertainties in estimates of future extreme rainfall is still required.  Scaling factors may vary between locations and rainfall event types.  Local temperature change projections depend on future emissions, climate model choices, and natural variability.   And the historical IDF curves that underlie any future IDF curves estimates may themselves be less than ideal estimates of past rainfall extremes.

ECCC suggests the following method for estimating future changes to extreme rainfall magnitudes described on IDF curves:

    1. For the location of interest, download historical IDF curve data from ClimateData.ca or develop based on guidance from ECCC and CSA PLUS 4013:2019.  Use this data to determine historical estimated rainfall intensity (RC) for the storm duration and return period of interest.


    2. Determine an appropriate future timeframe and emissions scenario, and using ClimateData.ca, the Climate Atlas of Canada, or Climate Resilient Buildings and Core Public Infrastructure data, find the long-term (30-year mean) annual mean temperature change (ΔT) for your location, timeframe and emission scenario.  Develop this information by using results from an ensemble of climate models.

    3. Determine future estimated rainfall intensity value (RP) according to the equation:

RP = RC x 1.07^ΔT

Integrating Climate Change into IDFs: A Worked Example

This exercise provides an illustrative step-by-step example of how to apply the temperature scaling approach to shift IDF values and estimate future extreme rainfall conditions.

Example goal: Estimate change in intensity of 1-in-100-year rainfall, for a 1-hour storm duration, for design of new a Canadian infrastructure project that is expected to last 50 years.

  1. Estimate observed 1-in-100-year rainfall intensity for a 1-hour storm event.
  2. Estimate change in temperature, 50 years in the future.
  3. Estimate change in extreme rainfall 50 years in the future.

Step 1: Obtain a historical estimate of 1-in-100-year rainfall for 1-hour storms:

Download available ECCC IDF historical baseline information from ClimateData.ca -> Navigate to the ClimateData.ca IDF map, and identify the closest available data to your location, with a long record of rainfall observations.

Identify historical 1-in-100-year 1-hour storm intensity for your location.

Step 2: Estimate change in temperature for your location, for 50 years in the future:

Download historical and future annual average temperatures for the IDF station location from the Climate Atlas (or another suitable resource) for an ensemble of climate models and for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5.  If using the Climate Atlas: obtain a location-relevant climate summary report, and for Variable=‘Mean Temperature’ and Type of display=‘Time Series’, from the ‘Climate model data’ link obtain two CSV format spreadsheets, each containing multi-model RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 projection information.

  • For each climate model simulation and RCP scenario within the downloaded ensemble, calculate:
    • 31-year average Historical Temperature that best represents the observational period used to develop historical IDF information:
      • For each RCP scenario-specific CSV file, use a spreadsheet program to determine a 31-year average annual historical temperature for each climate model. Center this 31-year time period in the middle of the observational period used to develop the original historical IDF curves.
    • 31-year average Future Temperature, centered on the final year of the proposed asset lifetime:
      • For each RCP scenario-specific CSV file, use a spreadsheet program to determine the 31-year 2065-2085 average annual future temperature value for each climate model.   This period is used because it brackets the year 2070, which is the estimated end-of-life for the proposed asset, given the 2020 construction year, and a 50 year design lifetime.
    • Change in temperatures over the asset lifetime:
      • For each climate model and RCP scenario, use Microsoft Excel or a similar program to calculate the change in temperatures:
Temperature Change = Future Temperature – Historical Temperature

Step 3: Estimate change in extreme rainfall for your location, for 50 years in the future:

  • Given historical rainfall intensity and the range of climate model and RCP scenario-specific temperature change values, use temperature scaling to calculate range of estimated future 1-in-100-year 1-hour intensities for your location.  For each climate model and RCP scenario, use a spreadsheet program to calculate future 1 hour 1-in-100-year rainfall intensities RP using the equation  (RP=RC x 1.07^ΔT)  and setting RC to the historical rainfall intensity from the historical IDF curve, and ΔT equal to each climate model’s temperature change value, for each RCP scenario.
  • Aggregate future rainfall intensities into summary statistics for use in risk-based decision-making.  For each RCP scenario, calculate summary estimates of future rainfall intensity (for example, 10th, 50th and 90th percentiles).
  • Apply risk-based decision-making to choose the future extreme rainfall value that is most appropriate for asset risk thresholds.  For example, if rainfall consequences to infrastructure are severe, consider applying upper end of projected future RCP 8.5 1-hour 1-in-100-year rainfall intensities to infrastructure design.
Now that you have read IDF Curves and Climate Change, you may wish to review IDF Curves 101 and Best Practices on Using IDF Curves.


20 comments:

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    Replies
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  7. Dr Ishiaku herbal medicine is mighty and genuine, I used Melissa oil and Lavender Healing herbs but result were just still the same but using Dr Ishiaku herbs cured my herpes final and I have being living for 2 years now No Sores.My herpes is truly gone.Contact him if you interested of his herbal medicine…he can aslo cure HIV, DIABETICS and other STDs
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    ReplyDelete
  13. Greatest thanks to Dr ,Momoh for his herbal drugs that he prepared for me and when I start using it in just 2weeks I was completely cured and that ended my HERPES SIMPLEX 1&2 DISEASE i am so happy and grateful to Dr Momoh . after reading about him on a testimony of Jason Cash on a blogger. I knew suddenly Dr Momoh was the right Doctor to cure my HERPES SIMPLEX 1&2 DISEASE. I discuss with Dr Momoh and he prepared a herbal medicine for me and when it got sent to me in south Korean . I used the herbal medicine and 2weeks and i went to check up again. after 15years of suffering from HERPES SIMPLEX 1&2 at last i am smiling once again. Dr Momoh also has remedy to others disease like COLD SORES,HIV/AIDS,DIABETES.CANCER,HIGH BLOOD PRESSURE AND MANY MORE. I oblige everyone to contact this powerful herbalist Dr Momoh and be free from your suffering. contact his WhatsApp line: +2347083724098    or visit his Website  https://drmomohherbaltreatment.wordpress.com     Email:Dr.momoh9@gmail.com

    ReplyDelete
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  15. HOW DR ITUA NATURAL DEEP ROOTS AND HERBS HEALED ME FROM HERPES VIRUS

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  17. God bless Dr zack balo for the wonderful works he is doing in people's life. Both those that referred me to him and those that wants to contact him will find help in him. My name is Dorothy from US. I have been healed of Herpes Simplex Virus (HSV) by Dr zack balo. I didn't know herbs are that powerful until I read a testimony online about how Dr zack balo has been helping people with this sickness and curing HIV/AIDS,DIABETES,HEPATITIS B,IMPOTENCE,DIARRHEA. Dr zack balo email address: wiseindividualspell@gmail.com This man sent me the herbs and within 14 days, I was cured. I would direct anyone who needs help to get in touch with Dr zack balo herbal medicine and you will be helped immediately. l am sure of his help. Call/text him on +13212505016 or visit his website: http://drzackbalo.website2.me today to get your help.

    ReplyDelete
  18. HERBAL MEDICINE THAT CAN HELP YOU GET RID OF HERPES DISEASE/VIRUS..Now there is relief in the form of natural herbal healing. Herbal medication is the Quick Relief that works for most within two weeks to reduce outbreak and cure you completely from HSV1&2, Do you need herbal products to cure your Herpes Disease contact Dr. Kham to help and he will surely help you to cure your Herpes Virus in two weeks time ..I has suffered from Herpes Virus for 4 years that almost took my life, but one day I was searching for the possible cure on internet, so luckily I found so many Reviews about Dr. Kham on how he helps people in curing their deadly diseases, and I contacted Dr. Kham asked him for solutions and he started the remedies for my health. He prepared a powerful Herbal medicine for me and I received herbal medicine and after using it for 2 weeks my condition has greatly improved, All my symptoms/outbreak has stopped, So I went to my doc and was confirmed negative. I am Herpes Virus free! contact this Herbal doctor via his email dr.khamcaregiver@gmail.com or WhatsApp: +2348159922297 Kindly Visit his Website http://herbalistdockham.website2.me/ for more info.

    ReplyDelete
  19. I am really happy that i have been cured from (HERPES SIMPLEX VIRUS) with the herbal medicine of  Dr MOMOH , i have been suffering from this disease for the past 3 years and 4 mouth without solution until i came across the email of this doctor who have cure so many people with his herbal medicine, i also choose to give him a chance to help me and my husband, he told me what to do and i kindly did it, and he gave us his herbal medicine and direct me on how to use it, i also follow his instructions for use and he ask us to go for a check up after 1 week and 5days which i did, to my greatest surprise our result came out as negative, we are really happy that there is someone like this doctor who is ready to help anytime any day. To all the readers and viewers that is doubting this testimony, stop doubting it and contact this doctor if you really have one and see if he will not actually help you. i am not a stupid woman that i will come out to the public and start saying what someone have not done for me and i know that there are some people out there who are really suffering and hurting their family just because of these diseases so you can Email him on dr.momoh9@gmail.com OR WHATSAPP him on +2347083724098  he also told me that he has cure for these diseases listed below . HERPES SIMPLEX VIRUS. .DIABETES . CANCER .HEPATITIS .HIV/AIDS Thank you for your time  

    ReplyDelete