Showing posts with label concurrent causation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label concurrent causation. Show all posts

Lost Rivers - Newtonbrook Tributary Flooded Basements - Former North York (Toronto)

From the late 1940's to late 1950's a tributary of the Don River in the Newtonbrook neighbourhood of North York was diverted and enclosed, fully replaced by residential development by the late 1960's. The transition in this area west of Yonge Street and south of Steeles Ave. W. is shown below (source Toronto archives, compiled by Toronto Water) :

Newtonbrook development 1947 - 1969, former North York, City of Toronto

Today, watercourse corridors are preserved through residential developments - larger valley corridors are protected through Ontario's Natural Hazards policies, acts and regulations to mitigate flood risks, and smaller tributaries are now protected to preserve local hydrologic functions (e.g., water balance) and environmental features (habitat).

The Newtonbrook tributary was not preserved although it conveyed runoff from over 250 hectares of land (2.5 square kilometers). The following images show the overland flow path through the area, including multiples of the estimated 100 year flow spread (1 time, 2 times and 4 times width), and basement flooding locations reported in May 2000 (orange), August 2005 (red), and July 2013 (yellow):

Overland flow path and 100 year flow spread (1 x, 2 x and 4 x) and historic basement flooding locations.

Today stormwater management practices would control the quantity of runoff from new development so that it matches pre-development peak flows during extreme rainfall events. This practice did not become widespread until the 1980's in Ontario. The Newtonbrook drainage catchment would have been controlled by about 5 or more stormwater ponds using today's standards (about one pond every 50 hectares).

Just over 35,000 Toronto properties are centered in the 100 year flow spread limits estimated through CityFloodMap.Com's overland flow and flood risk analysis. In many cases, like in the Newtonbrook area, these flow limits correspond to areas of high basement flooding risk given that the overland flow system can overwhelm the local sewer system with significant extraneous inflows during extreme storm events. City-wide analysis of overland flow risks and basement flooding correlation is presented in the following slides:



Lost River Walks Toronto - Yesterday's Rivers Are Tomorrow's Flooded Basements

"The objective of Lost River Walks is to encourage understanding of the city as a part of nature rather than apart from it, and to appreciate and cherish our heritage. Lost River Walks aims to create an appreciation of the city’s intimate connection to its water systems by tracing the courses of forgotten streams, by learning about our natural and built heritage and by sharing this information with others."
Source http://www.lostrivers.ca/

www.lostrivers.ca
Today's Lost Rivers are tomorrow's flooded basements.

According to Lost Rivers, Walmsley Brook was named for John Walmsley, a settler in the Leaside area or Toronto. It started as small streams near Duplex Avenue and Alexandra Boulevard which joined west of Yonge Street and flowed east to Mount Pleasant Road, then past Bayview and Eglinton, before heading south east to Laird Drive, the CPR rail line and the Don River.

Downstream reaches around McRae Drive to the outlet were largely open in 1922. The reach was subsequently filled in as shown on the images below.
Toronto Flooding
Walmsley Brook, tributary of the Don River was 'filled in' and piped near McRae Drive and Laird Drive and is a part of Lost River Walks, organized by Toronto Green Community.

The catchment draining to the low reach is over 400 hectares in area. That is significant as flood hazards were typically mapped when drainage areas reached 125 hectares, or approximately half a square mile. Today it is not uncommon to map river flood hazards for drainage areas as small as 50 hectares.

Given the large drainage area and the obstructions to flow along the overland flow path, it is no surprise that this are is subject to flood risks. But it does not manifest as river flooding - instead it is a combination of urban flooding overland, and basement flooding that is aggravated by extraneous inflows to the sanitary sewer system.

Over 250 flooded basements were reported after the May 12, 2000 storm in Toronto. The flooding was concentrated in the former Walmsley Brook watershed, and extended outside of it to the south west where the sanitary sewer system crossed into the watershed.
Toronto Overland Flood
The former Walmsey Brook alignment through Leaside is shown to the left. The same alignment is shown on the right along with reported basement flooding locations in the former watershed. Residential development west of Laird Drive and commercial development east of Laird Drive has reduced the overland flow capacity needed during extreme rainfall events.
Perspective of Walmsley Brook from outlet to Don River.
Detailed analysis using Ontario topographic data, geographic information system hydrology tools, and geo-referenced Toronto flood locations for May 12, 2000, August 19, 2095, and July 8, 2013 storms shows quantitatively that the overland flow path along lost rivers affects basement flood risk. A summary of the analysis is in a previous post.

The lesson? "You can take the river out of the neighbourhood, but you can't take the neighbourhood's runoff out of the residual flow path". Lost rivers not forgotten.

Lost River Walk Sunnybrook Plaza
Sag in the road - lost river near current Sunnybrook Plaza is along the original watercourse alignment. Eglinton Ave East, east of Bayview Ave, 1951. Source James Victor Salmon, Toronto Public Library:
http://www.torontopubliclibrary.ca/detail.jsp?Entt=RDMDC-PICTURES-R-3298&R=DC-PICTURES-R-3298 

Toronto flood lost rivers
Walmsley Brook in Leaside has been enclosed in sewers and the overland flow system has been filled in and blocked but the residual flow path remains in place. During extreme rainfall the storm sewer capacity will be exceeded and overland (urban) flooding will occur on the original brook flow path. Basement flooding is often concentrated along the flow path after impeded surface flow enters building flood drains and overwhelms the wastewater sewer system.
Bathurst Heights reach of Yellow Creek.
Map source Lost Rivers.
****

Lost Rivers describes many other lost watercourse features in Toronto. We will highlight a few of them in the weeks to come, but first here is another smaller system that demonstrated flood clusters during extreme storm events, although not as extreme as Walmsley Brook in Leaside..

According to Lost Rivers, Yellow Creek originates in the Downsview area and entered the Don River just north of The Prince Edward. The Bathurst Heights reach experienced flood clusters on May 12, 2000, and also on July 8, 2013. Note that our mapping for all July 8, 2013 flood reports is incomplete and does not show all the reported flood locations as the individual site data is not available from the city. However our May 12, 2000 mapping does reflect all reported locations and this likely reflects the broader July 8, 2013 incidents as well - as most properties are built at grades and with service connection very close to their neighbours, back-ups at one property general reflect risks and incidents at adjacent ones. Sometimes property owners do not report flooding to the city and instead work through their insurance company. In the most chronically flooded locations where no back-up insurance is available, there may be no reports.

The image below shows where Yellow Creek fits into the broader lost rivers network and shows details of flooding along the Bathurst Heights reach.

Perspective of Bathurst Heights reach of Yellow Creek, southwest of Bathurst and Lawrence, looking northward. This ArcExplorer oblique image shows exaggerated topographic relief, clearly shows the ups and downs of the former creek catchment. Historical flooding has been concentrated along the flow path upstream and downstream of Dell Park where runoff is concentrated during extreme rainfall events.
***
Link to More Toronto Lost Rivers

Insurers need to keep the foot on the gas on overland flood




Insurance Business Canada reports "Insurers need to keep the foot on the gas on overland flood"

http://www.insurancebusiness.ca/expert-advice/insurers-need-to-keep-the-foot-on-the-gas-on-overland-flood-198497.aspx

Below is our comment on the article, slightly edited and with some added graphics and links.

******

Overland flood TorontoNot only is sewer back-up and urban overland flood difficult to explain to consumers as noted in the article, it is also difficult to separate in terms of the reality that urban overland risks drive sewer back-up risks at a neighbourhood level.  This analysis shows the overlap of these perils:

http://www.cityfloodmap.com/2015/08/toronto-overland-flow-factors-affect.html

Analysis is of historical flooding in Toronto in 2000, 2005 and 2013 and shows the correlation of overland risk factors (proximity to overland flow path and catchment slope) and observed basement flood reports during extreme events.  From a physics, hydrology, hydraulics perspective there should be no surprise that the perils are related because the runoff accumulation that drives wastewater system extraneous wet weather inflows (and surcharges and backs up sewers into basements) is the same runoff accumulation that defines overland flow into a window well or reverse slope driveway or walkout.  Raindrops do not know how they fit into insurance policy endorsements.

Overland flow system 1922 - former Walmsley Brook in Leaside, Toronto
Overland flow system today - reduced flow capacity / encroachment.
Essentially, insurers have covered overland event damages in the past, unknowingly, because overland risks in one part of a neighbourhood have caused sewer back-up damages in others.  But because damages are assessed at a property scale and not a neighbourhood scale, it would be impractical to deny coverage.  RSA has recently acknowledged this 'concurrent causation' of flooding.

The Toronto back-up and overland risk correlation suggests bundling of coverage should be mandatory in some areas with high overland risk.  Why?  Because insurers will be covering back-up damages anyway by insuring the neighbourhood's overland risk.

Municipalities must keep a foot on the gas on infrastructure improvements that increase the underground system capacities (the sewer systems that handle the 'small' storms).  But they must also look in the rear view mirror and assess the causes of flooding and revisit their overland drainage system management - that is map it, enforce drainage easements, prevent infill that obstructs flow paths and avoid the repeat of enclosures that have caused issues in the past.  This approach and the example above (Leaside, Toronto, former Walmsley Brook) are shown in our presentation Urban Flood Risk from Flood Plains to Floor Drains.

Causes of basement flooding. Toronto Area 32 cluster area 1.
No aging infrastructure is noted in the causes of flooding.
Municipalities should also assess impacts of pollution control activities on basement flood risks and the province should mandate that pollution control activities not aggravate flood risks.  Tanks to keep beaches clean in my neighbourhood caused basements to flood in extreme weather.  The insurance industry could work with the province on this front and participate in studies as a stakeholder when basement flood risks can are an issue.

Statements in the Insurance Business Canada article about aging infrastructure contributing to flooding are becoming tired because an old sewer doesn't lose much capacity, and even a displaced joint doesn't disrupt flow such either.  Toronto has completed 30+ detailed basement flood studies and none have pointed to aging infrastructure as a key cause of flooding.

Yes, homeowners with clogged laterals have a problem but this is not an issue for most mainline municipal sewers. The discussion must be refocused on the key factors affecting risk - if an aging concrete pipe becomes slightly rougher over time due to abrasion, this in no way compares to having the overland flow path filled in and blocked and lost forever, from a system capacity point of view.  Municipalities should prioritize efforts and embrace low cost programs that can reduce flood risks through regulations and policy (preserve overland flow paths) to complement more expensive, long-term capital upgrades to sewer systems.  Ironically, many sewers will good remaining service life (even 50 years to go) are being replaced to increase flood capacity now - not because of aging but because pre-1980's design standards did not preserve the overland flow path and now the barely-aged sewer is being upsized to compensate.

Likewise, statements on changing climate and 'excalating extreme weather' are also becoming tired and diverting attention from real causes and solutions.  Here are some facts on inaccurate statements on escalating weather: http://www.cityfloodmap.com/2015/07/storm-intensity-not-increasing-old.html

Climate Change Toronto
Statements about increasing storm intensity like those in the article and in the media go unchecked and should not be used as the rationale for increasing premiums.

While that is convenient, it moves us from an evidence-based approach to defining and solving problems (see recent post on the how Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics winner Daniel Kahneman would explain biased thinking about weather statistics and events).

Environment Canada's data does not show increasing trends in rain intensity - its a fact - here is an update with the latest data set and it echos statements by Environment Canada in 2011: http://www.cityfloodmap.com/2015/10/bogus-statements-on-storms-in-cbcnewsca.html

***

Spinach is not high in iron (sorry Popeye, it was a misplaced decimal point by a German chemist) - but a repeated story becomes fact in the mind of the public.  So lets stay focused on facts and not anecdotes and continue to 'kick the tires' on assumptions when it comes to flooding... just like we would with a new Volkswagon.