"For Canada as a whole, there is a lack of observational evidence of changes in daily and short-duration extreme precipitation."
ECCC predicts increases showing a theoretical probability density function shift (Figure 4.21) where the blue line probability density function represents today's/yesterday's eventt magnitudes and frequencies without climate effects, and red represents with effects (shift right means higher magnitude for any frequency):
Engineering Climate Datasets in some regions show trends in the magnitude of rain intensity magnitudes (reality) going the other way however:
https://www.cityfloodmap.com/2019/03/idf-updates-for-southern-ontario-show.html .
This image shows the difference between the theory and the local data reality - the green line is the REALITY showing for any given frequency (2, 10, 50, 100 Year events) the magnitude is going down in southern Ontario:
Surely, we have DO enough point locations and observations to see the change in these small storms. But if these small frequent storm intensities are no higher with today's temperature shifts, why do we expect the extremes to be higher either? Data we do have shows in southern Ontario these 100 year intensities are 0.2% LOWER on average. So extremes are shifting shifting along with the means.... shifting lower.
A theoretical probability density function shift has been promoted in the past by ICLR and IBC in the 2012 Telling the Weather Story report:
This has been shown to be 'made-up' and not related to real data (ECCC IDF tables and charts mistakenly cited as the source of the 40 year to 6 year frequency shift) - this chart shows the theoretical 1 standard deviation shift widely circulated by IBC and real data shifts:
See the difference between theory and data? It is pretty clear.
The ASCE 2018 manual promotes incorporating any no-regret, now cost measures in design today considering most probable future conditions, and allowing design flexibility to adapt in the future if and when performance is shown to be inadequate or affected by future changes - this is a practical approach intended to avoid costly over-design, and over-investment in potentially unnecessary and cost-ineffective infrastructure today.
While the ASCE 2015 report notes the high degree of uncertainty "However, even though the scientific community agrees that climate is changing, there is significant uncertainty about the location, timing and magnitude of the changes over the lifetime of infrastructure."
In contrast, the ECCC report appears to asset a high degree of confidence in future changes saying "For Canada as a whole, there is a lack of observational evidence of changes in daily and short-duration extreme precipitation. This is not unexpected, as extreme precipitation response to anthropogenic climate change during the historical period would have been small relative to its natural variability, and as such, difficult to detect. However, in the future, daily extreme precipitation is projected to increase (high confidence). - how can ECCC assert high confidence when there are no observed trends? How can ECCC contradict ASCE's statement on high "signifcant uncertainty'?
ECCC reports that summer precipitation is expected to decrease: "Summer precipitation is projected to decrease over southern Canada under a high emission scenario toward the end of the 21st century, but only small changes are projected under a low emission scenario." - how can that be if the summer temperatures are going up? Does this not violate the Clausius-Clapeyron theory cited in the ECCC report states that "increased atmospheric water vapour in this part of the world should translate into more precipitation, according to our understanding of physical processes" - so that is a theory - what about the real data? What does it show? the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship does not stand up to scrutiny as shown in a previous post.
Given highest rainfall extreme are in the summer (see the work of Dr. Trevor Dickinson on seasonal extremes), a summer decrease in precipitation could potentially mean lower flood risks. The data for southern Ontario already show a decrease in the annual maximum series (reflecting lower means and typical 2 Year design intensities in derived IDF curves) and the extreme 100 Year design intensities are decreasing slightly as well.
Overall, many in the media have over-hyped concerns about changing rainfall severity. Data and ECCC's report shows there has been no change, beyond random fluctuation. Looking ahead the American Society of Civil Engineers indicates that future changes have "significant uncertainty"- this contracts the ECCC's statement on "high confidence" on future extremes.
You providing the content is very easy to understand for me and attractive to me. Truly well post keep continue the posting...
ReplyDeletePrimavera Training in Chennai
Primavera Course in Chennai
Tableau Training in Chennai
Spark Training in Chennai
Power BI Training in Chennai
Excel Training in Chennai
Oracle Training in Chennai
Oracle DBA Training in Chennai
Social Media Marketing Courses in Chennai
Great Article Artificial Intelligence Projects
DeleteProject Center in Chennai
JavaScript Training in Chennai
JavaScript Training in Chennai
This post is really nice and informative. The explanation given is really comprehensive and informative..
ReplyDeleteWeb Designing Training in Chennai
Web Designing Course in Chennai
Web Designing Training in Bangalore
Web Designing Course in Bangalore
Web Designing Training in Hyderabad
Web Designing Course in Hyderabad
Web Designing Training in Coimbatore
Web Designing Training
Web Designing Online Training
Really, this article is truly one of the best in article history. I am a collector of old "items" and sometimes read new items if I find them interesting. And this one that I found quite fascinating and should be part of my collection. Very good work!
ReplyDeleteBusiness Analytics Course in Bangalore
What an incredible message this is. Truly one of the best posts I have ever seen in my life. Wow, keep it up.
ReplyDeleteData Analytics Course in Bangalore
I was planning to write something like this on my website and you gave me an idea. With so many books and articles appearing to usher in the field of making money online and further confusing the reader on the real way to make money. Tableau Course in Bangalore
ReplyDeleteAttend The Data Analyst Course From ExcelR. Practical Data Analyst Course Sessions With Assured Placement Support From Experienced Faculty. ExcelR Offers The Data Analyst Course.
ReplyDeleteData Analyst Course
wonderful article contains lot of valuable information. Very interesting to read this article.I would like to thank you for the efforts you had made for writing this awesome article.
ReplyDeleteThis article resolved my all queries.good luck an best wishes to the team members.continue posting.learn digital marketing use these following link
Digital Marketing Course in Chennai
Đặt vé tại phòng vé Aivivu, tham khảo
ReplyDeleteVé máy bay đi Mỹ
giá vé máy bay từ hàn quốc về việt nam
vé máy bay hà nội sài gòn vietnam airlines
vé máy bay từ huế đi hà nội
vé máy bay giá rẻ đi Huế
Mua vé máy bay tại Aivivu, tham khảo
ReplyDeletesăn vé máy bay giá rẻ đi Mỹ
khi nào mở lại đường bay hàn quốc
vé máy bay về nha trang
giá vé máy bay đà nẵng đi đà lạt
vé máy bay đi Huế pacific airline
I am inspired with your post writing style & how continuously you describe this topic. After reading your post, thanks for taking the time to discuss this, I feel happy about it and I love learning more about this topic.. Primavera course in Chennai | Primavera p6 training online
ReplyDeleteI want to leave a little comment to support and wish you the best of luck.we wish you the best of luck in all your blogging enedevors.
ReplyDeletedata science in bangalore
i am glad to discover this page : i have to thank you for the time i spent on this especially great reading !! i really liked each part and also bookmarked you for new information on your site.
ReplyDeletecyber security training in bangalore
I really enjoyed reading your blog. It was very well written and easy to understand. Unlike other blogs that I have read which are actually not very good. Thank you so much!
ReplyDeleteData Science Training in Bangalore
Wonderful blog found to be very impressive to come across such an awesome blog. I should really appreciate the blogger for the efforts they have put in to develop such amazing content for all the curious readers who are very keen on being updated across every corner. Ultimately, this is an awesome experience for the readers. Anyways, thanks a lot and keep sharing the content in the future too.
ReplyDeleteDigital Marketing Training in Bangalore
The truly mind-blowing blog went amazed with the subject they have developed the content. This kind of post is really helpful to gain knowledge of unknown things which surely triggers to motivate and learn the new innovative contents. Hope you deliver the similar successive contents forthcoming as well.
ReplyDeleteCyber Security Course
Truly incredible blog found to be very impressive due to which the learners who go through it will try to explore themselves with the content to develop the skills to an extreme level. Eventually, thanking the blogger to come up with such phenomenal content. Hope you arrive with similar content in the future as well.
ReplyDeleteMachine Learning Course in Bangalore
I am glad to discover this page. I have to thank you for the time I spent on this especially great reading !! I really liked each part and also bookmarked you for new information on your site.
ReplyDeleteData Science Training in Chennai
I am glad to discover this page. I have to thank you for the time I spent on this especially great reading !! I really liked each part and also bookmarked you for new information on your site.
ReplyDeleteData Science Training in Chennai
Really impressed! Everything is a very open and very clear clarification of the issues. It contains true facts. Your website is very valuable. Thanks for sharing.
ReplyDeleteDigital Marketing Training in Bangalore
You have completed certain reliable points there. I did some research on the subject and found that almost everyone will agree with your blog.
ReplyDeleteArtificial Intelligence Training in Bangalore
Happy to chat on your blog, I feel like I can't wait to read more reliable posts and think we all want to thank many blog posts to share with us.
ReplyDeleteMachine Learning Course in Bangalore
I wanted to leave a little comment to support you and wish you the best of luck. We wish you the best of luck in all of your blogging endeavors.
ReplyDeleteData Science Training in Bangalore
My friend mentioned to me your blog, so I thought I’d read it for myself. Very interesting insights, will be back for more!
ReplyDeletedata scientist course in hyderabad
I want to leave a little comment to support and wish you the best of luck.we wish you the best of luck in all your blogging enedevors.
ReplyDeleteiot training in hyderabad
I want to leave a little comment to support and wish you the best of luck.we wish you the best of luck in all your blogging enedevors.
ReplyDeletebusiness analytics courses
I am a new user of this site, so here I saw several articles and posts published on this site, I am more interested in some of them, will provide more information on these topics in future articles.
ReplyDeletedata science course in london
Really impressed! Everything is a very open and very clear clarification of the issues. It contains true facts. Your website is very valuable. Thanks for sharing.
ReplyDeleteBest Data Analytics Courses in Bangalore
I read your excellent post. It's a great job. I enjoyed reading your post for the first time. I want to thank you for this publication. Thank you...
ReplyDeleteData Science Course in Patna
Natural Herbal Medicine To Cure {HERPES DISEASE} TOTALLY HERE
ReplyDeleteDo you need a solution to cure your Herpes Disease contact Chief Dr Lucky to help and he will surely help you to cure your Herpes Virus .. I have suffered from Herpes-2 Virus for 4years ago that almost took my life. But one day I was searching the internet and I found Chief Dr Lucky saw so many testimonies on how Chief Dr Lucky helps people in curing their deadly diseases, and I contacted Chief Dr Lucky, asked him for solutions and he started the remedies for my health. He prepared herbal medicine for me and I received the herbal medicine and after using it for 2 weeks my condition has greatly improved, all my symptoms including Abdominal pain, Nausea and vomiting, Loss of appetite stopped, so I went to my doc and was confirmed negative. I am Herpes Virus free! contact the herbal doctor via his email> chiefdrlucky@gmail.com also visit his page> http://facebook.com/chiefdrlucky or his cell number / WhatsApp> +2348132777335 Website > http://chiefdrlucky.com
Amazingly by and large very interesting post. I was looking for such an information and thoroughly enjoyed examining this one. Keep posting. An obligation of appreciation is all together for sharing.data analytics course in gwalior
ReplyDeleteI want to leave a little comment to support and wish you the best of luck.we wish you the best of luck in all your blogging enedevors
ReplyDeletedata scientist course in trivandrum
I always search online for articles that can help me. Obviously, there is a lot to know about this. I think you made a few good points about the features as well. Keep up the good work!
ReplyDeleteData Scientist Course in Ernakulam
Being the 11th biggest economy on the planet, Canada is a help industry ruled economy with logging and oil enterprises as the country's most significant areas. https://dynamichealthstaff.com/nursing-jobs-in-canada-for-indian-nurses
ReplyDeleteWonderful blog post. It's absolute magic on your part! I have never seen a more wonderful article than this. You really made my day today with this. Hope you continue like this!
ReplyDeleteData Scientist Course in Patna
Awesome blog. I enjoyed reading your articles. This is truly a great read for me. I have bookmarked it and I am looking forward to reading new articles. Keep up the good work!data scientist course in ghaziabad
ReplyDeleteI want to leave a little comment to support and wish you the best of luck.we wish you the best of luck in all your blogging enedevors
ReplyDeletebusiness analytics course in varanasi
I am a new user of this site, so here I saw several articles and posts published on this site, I am more interested in some of them, will provide more information on these topics in future articles.
ReplyDeletedata science course in london
I want to leave a little comment to support and wish you the best of luck.we wish you the best of luck in all your blogging enedevors
ReplyDeletedata science training in delhi
Extremely overall quite fascinating post. I was searching for this sort of data and delighted in perusing this one. Continue posting.
ReplyDeleteA debt of gratitude is in order for sharing.business analytics course in kolhapur
Hello. I found your blog using msn. This is a very well written article. I'll be sure to bookmark it and come back for more useful information. Thanks for the post. I will definitely be back.
ReplyDeleteData Science Training in Bangalore
Happy to visit your blog, I am by all accounts forward to more solid articles and I figure we as a whole wish to thank such huge numbers of good articles, blog to impart to us.https://360digitmg.com/course/project-management-professional-pmp
ReplyDeleteAmazingly by and large very interesting post. I was looking for such an information and thoroughly enjoyed examining this one.
ReplyDeleteKeep posting. An obligation of appreciation is all together for sharing.
business analytics course in gwalior
And even also dimensions are integrated with 100 % set up size along with spot of pretty much all the geometry! Along with interactions are at the same time used to find out the precise standards. By making use of this the geometrical recipes can use for a great deal more than one objective. https://freeprosoftz.com/solidworks-free-download-crack/
ReplyDelete