|Figure 1 - Average Change in Southern Ontario IDF Values for Engineering Design by Return Period - Record-Length Weighted Changes Between 1990 and Version 3.0 Datasets for 21 Climate Stations with Long Term Records|
|Figure 2 - Average Change in Southern Ontario IDF Values for Engineering Design by Duration and Return Period - Record-Length Weighted Changes Between 1990 and Version 3.0 Datasets for 21 Climate Stations with Long Term Records|
|Table 1 - Trend in Southern Ontario Intensity Duration Frequency Values for 21 Long-Term Climate Stations, Weighted by Record Length - 0.4 Percent Average Decrease in Intensities|
|Table 2 - Trend in Southern Ontario Intensity Duration Frequency Values for 21 Long-Term Climate Stations, Not-weighted by Record Length - 0.2 Percent Average Decrease in Intensities|
|Table 1 Annotated - What has changed? What are IDF values used for? What does this mean for municipal infrastructure engineering design and resilience of sewer and pond designs?|
The American Society of Civil Engineers ASCE has created a guide that can be considered and that classifies infrastructure by it's criticality, based on potential loss of life and economic impact as well as the service life of the asset to determine an approach for addressing potential future climate change effects. The guide is ""Climate-Resilient Infrastructure: Adaptive Design and Risk Management". One of the principles is that given uncertainty with future climate, one may design with today's climate if the risk class is low, as long as future adaptation is feasible. The guide also promotes an approach called the Observational Method (OM), defined as follows:
"The Observational Method [in ground engineering] is a continuous, managed, integrated, process of design, construction control, monitoring and review that enables previously defined modifications to be incorporated during or after construction as appropriate.All these aspects have to be demonstrably robust. The objective is to achieve greater overall economy without compromising safety."
The OM approach has been adapted by ASCE to designing climate resilient infrastructure and has the following steps:
1. Design is based on the most-probable weather or climate condition(s), not the most unfavorable and the most-credible unfavorable deviations from the most-probable conditions are identified.
2. Actions or design modifications are determined in advance for every foreseeable unfavorable weather or climate deviation from the most-probable ones.
3. The project performance is observed over time using preselected variables and the project response to observed changes is assessed.
4. Design and construction modifications (previously identified) can be implemented in response to observed changes to account for changes in risk.
Looking at the OM approach for retrofitted systems, the noted changes in southern Ontario IDF values since 1990 will have no bearing on performance and flood risks and would not trigger project modifications/adaptation. Some conservative design hyetographs used in retrofit analysis do incorporate a safety factor that could account for future climate effects as well as other hydrologic (e.g. antecedent conditions) or operational uncertainties (e.g. local blockages, clogged grates). For example, some municipalities use a Chicago storm distribution that is conservative in terms of system response - this was examined in detail in this WEAO 2018 Conference Paper and presentation. That type of conservative design hyetograph pattern could limit the project response to future IDF changes experienced under less extreme real storm patterns.
What is more uncertain perhaps, at that requires observations, is the baseline performance of the retrofitted system and how well it mitigates flood risk given the diverse range of failure mechanisms possible. That is, infrastructure upgrades on the public collection system will not alleviate lot-level risks that remain, resulting in baseline performance gaps regardless of changes in IDF values or baseline system design. This should be an area of future research, i.e., to quantify baseline mitigation effectiveness (i.e., performance) - as many factors affect performance and occur together at the same time, it may be difficult to separate out what performance variations are due to weather variations versus other factors. For example, real storms have a significant spatial and temporal variability compared to simplified design assumptions (typically spatially and temporally uniform rainfall) - this was explored at a recent National Research Council workshop on urban flooding (see slides 17-19 for a recent example of real-world temporal and spatial variability compared to design assumptions). Nonetheless, an observed gap in performance regardless of the cause can trigger adaptation/modifications to restore performance of a project to its intended level of service. This would likely be possible only if performance is significantly below expectations.
- CBC Ombudsman's scathing ruling on journalistic standard violation regarding extreme rainfall reporting - link,
- CBC Radio Canada interview on the importance of data and gaps in media reporting - link,
- Financial Post OpEd on insurance industry claims correlating flood losses to extreme weather trends - link,
- Water Environment Association of Ontario (WEAO) Influents magazine article on flood risk drivers - link,
- National Research Council national workshop presentation on extreme rainfall trends (this inspired the southern Ontario IDF review in this and earlier posts) - link,
- WEAO OWWA joint climate change committee presentation on flood risk factors including IDF trends and hydrologic factors - link,
- Review of “Telling the Weather Story” report citing theoretical IDF shifts as real Environment and Climate Change Canada data - link,
- “Thinking Fast and Slow on Floods and Flow” exploring heuristic biases in framing and solving problems surrounding extreme rainfall and flood risks - link.