"Truth and untruth exist at the same level of authority on the internet."
Salman Rushdie, on Fareed Zakaria GPS, September 17, 2017
"Only the small secrets need to be protected. The big ones are kept secret by public incredulity."
Too bad. Lets expose the big secrets in flood risk management and climate adaptation, and give truth the upper hand, shall we?
Lets encourage "radical transparently". Why? So that we can create data-driven, evidence-based policies to cost-effectively manage flood damages and reduce risks to people and property.
This radical transparency is promoted by Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates (see his Ted Talk here on successful investing and company building). Dalio says that to be successful we need to "bet against the consensus" and "be right".
The presentation below on the key drivers for managing flood risk in Southern Ontario goes against the consensus in terms of extreme weather extremes (showing they are down not up) - but its not a bet, but rather a careful review of data - so in that regard I trust it is 'right' .... or certainly right-enough for its intended purpose given all the other uncertainties in hydrology and hydraulic disciplines.
Ray Dalio in his Ted Talk shares his painful "Fail Forward" moment of ruin and how he used the experience to improve his decision making. He said "Rather than thinking 'I'm Right', I started asking myself 'How do I know I'm Right?' I gained a humility I needed in order to balance with my audacity. I wanted to find the smartest people who would disagree with me to try to understand their persepctive or to have them stress test my perspective. I wanted to create an idea meritocracy ..."
Let me know your thoughts. I welcome any 'stress test' of my OWWA WEAO Joint Climate Change Committee presentation above. Thank you so much!
In-depth data and analysis on extreme weather and flood risks on www.cityfloodmap.com share engineering insight on complex topics of infrastructure design and performance, urban hydrology, flood risk assessment, and cost-effective risk management. Our goal is to promote critical, evidence-based "Thinking Slow on Floods and Flow" to improve flood and stormwater management policies and achieve effective environmental outcomes. R.J. Muir, Toronto, ON.
Radical Transparency. Uncovering the 'big secrets' in urban flood risk adaptation and extreme rainfall trends under climate change in Southern Ontario.
Posted by Flood Advisor
Labels: adaptation, climate change, design standard adaptation, Environment Canada, extreme rainfall, flood, IDF, meritocracy, Ontario, OWWA, radical transparency, rain intensity, rain trends, rainfall records, urban, WEAO