Green Infrastructure Infiltration Increases Urban Flood Risks? GI Benefits in New Development Can Worsen Existing Infrastructure Stresses in Old Developments.

Cincinnati Bioswale
There is no doubt that Green Infrastructure (GI) or Low Impact Development (LID) measures are an essential tool in a water manager or municipal engineer's modern tool kit. In new developments, distributed green infrastructure, and even more centralized features, including rain gardens, bioswales, perforated pipes or pavers and infiltration galleries can help manage typical water balance impacts of urbanization by reducing downstream erosion stresses, sustaining natural heritage features like wetlands and streams that are often home to sensitive aquatic and terrestrial species. GI and LID measures do this largely by infiltrating urban runoff from hardened impermeable surfaces like rooftops and roadways or parking lots into the ground (see Ontario Ministry of Environment and Climate Change Interpretation Bulletin, February 2015). In some areas of the province that rely on groundwater for municipal water supply, these measures may also help sustain source water quantity and make aquifers more resilient to climate variability, especially long term droughts (e.g., see page 159, Policy ID REC-1 in APPROVED SOURCE PROTECTION PLAN: CTC Source Protection Region, 2015).

But....

In existing development areas, especially those built before the 1980's, infiltrating water into the ground as part of a GI or LID retrofit can have a significant downside for old muncipal infrastructure and private properties. That is because older infrastructure is sensitive to groundwater levels that drives infiltrated runoff into utility trenches, thorough cracks between joints of municipal sanitary sewers and service laterals, and into 1000's of kilometers of foundation drains surrounding properties with basements - drains that in many older areas connect to the sanitary sewer and ultimately drain to the municipal wastewater treatment plant.

This post explores how GI and LID infiltration stresses in old development areas can affect flooding risks, sewer overflow risks and watewater treatment costs in Ontario cities.

The risks from infiltration on wastewater systems is well-known. The Ontario Municipal Knowledge Network (OMKN) has highlighted the cost of treating infiltrated water and inflows in its 2008 General Inflow & Infiltration Management Practices - Best Practices Summary Report, also noting the first challenge related to Inflow and Infiltration (I&I or I/I) management is: "Protecting customers from basement flooding". Other concerns are "Increased flow to wastewater treatment plants and increased operating costs at the plants due to the excess volume of water requiring treatment". The OMNK's Best Practices Report Inflow and Infiltration - Increasing System Knowledge Through Flow Monitoring notes the drivers for managing I&I in Peel Region:

"There have been two catalysts for the Region’s I/I programs and studies: exceedance of system and plant capacities leading to sewer overflow and basement flooding occurrences"

More recently, infiltration has been noted as a concern by the insurance industry in terms of the lost wastewater system capacity and the impacts on basement flooding and insurance losses / damages. The Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction's investigations have recently indicated that " I/I directly contributes to flooding by filling up pipes with water, using up capacity that could convey larger storms".

And the potential impacts of GI and LID measures on wastewater system infiltration in Ontario was recognized ages ago -the former Ministry of the Environment conducted a Workshop on Stormwater Quality Best Management Practices in 1992 following the introduction of on-site infiltration source control LIDs called Best Management Practices (BMPs). The comprehensive Workshop Summary prepared by Marshall Macklin Monaghan Limited identifies concerns with on-site infiltration measures and these included:
“- basement leakage problems related to infiltration near housing
- surcharging of sanitary sewers by short circuiting of infiltrated water”

Lets look at quantifiable impact of groundwater infiltration on wastewater systems. For background, let's notes that groundwater infiltration is classified into two types in the sanitary sewer design profession:
  • Groundwater Infiltration (GWI)
  • Rainfall Dependent Inflow and Infiltration (RDII)
Green Infrastructure GI Low Impact Development LID Urban Basement Flooding Sewer Back-up Flood Risk Infiltration Stress
Groundwater Infiltration , Rainfall Dependent Inflow and Infiltration,
and other wastewater flow components to assess GI and LID Impacts.
From "An Approach for Estimating Groundwater Infiltration Rates
into Wastewater Collection Systems under Typical Year Conditions",
Zhang et. al. 2013
GWI is considered one component of Dry Weather Flow (DWF) which also includes Base Wastewater Flow (BWF). The hydrographs at right show these components of wet weather flow and are from An Approach for Estimating Groundwater Infiltration Rates into
under Typical Year Conditions by Li Zhang, Fang Cheng, Robert Herr, Gregory Barden, Hunter Kelly and Edward Burgess in " Journal of Water Management Modeling, R246-21. doi: 10.14796/JWMM.R246-21

Many GI and LID features are designed to get rain runoff or snow melt into the ground. The benefit in new development areas is that these practices sustain aquifer levels that in turn preserve baseflow rates to creeks (i.e., 'environmental flows') that sustain natural features. But the disbenefit in old areas is that raising groundwater levels raises GWI, using up sanitary sewer capacity that is no longer available during a big storm. As a result, when GWI goes up, so does basement flooding / sewer back-up risk because the previous wastewater system conveyance capacity is no longer available.

Green Infrastructure Basement Flooding
Groundwater Infiltration GWI Increases with Higher Precipitation.
From "An Approach for Estimating Groundwater Infiltration Rates
into Wastewater Collection Systems under Typical Year Conditions",
Zhang et. al. 2013
Can we quantify how infiltration affects GWI? Yes - using climate records and monitored wastewater flow rates, studies have correlated GWI rates to the amount of precipitation. At right, GWI in Cincinnati shows a strong correlation to precipitation on an annual basis. More precipitation means more infiltration, meaning higher GWI.

Low Impact Development Groundwater and Flooding Impacts
March Groundwater Infiltration GWI Increases Correlated
with Previous 15 Day Precipitation Total.
From "An Approach for Estimating Groundwater Infiltration Rates 
into Wastewater Collection Systems under Typical Year Conditions",
Zhang et. al. 2013
Seasonal influences of precipitation on GWI have also been found, with the highest spring GWI rates affected by precipitation over the previous 15 days. Zhang et. al's analysis in Cincinnati shows that if the previous 15 days were dry (no rain) the GWI flow at the plant was below 60 MGD, while with 2 inches of precipitation (about 50 mm), the GWI rate increased to about 90 MGD, a 50% increase.

Zhang et. al concluded "Significant positive
linear relationships were found between GWI and precipitation both annually
and monthly. The annual relationship showed that the adjusted R2 of the
regression result is 0.78, indicating that 78% of the varation of the yearly average
WWTP GWI can be explained by the annual precipitation."

LID and GI infiltration impacts wastewater systems and basement back-up risk
LID Runoff Reduction Benefits Can Lead to Groundwater Infiltration Stresses
In old developments with no GI or LID, limited precipitation infiltrates. It generally just runs off, collected in storm sewer systems. So only a small fraction of runoff is infiltrated. Monitoring by Credit Valley Conservation of the Elm Drive bioswale LID show the change in runoff when LIDs are retrofitted, indicating "69% of all rainfall is detained and infiltrated" in one study. The graph at right illustrates the runoff reduction benefit. Some detained runoff is evaporated or transpired by soil and vegetation in the LID feature, but some is infiltrated into the ground where it contributes to GWI and a portion of RDII. 

If half the runoff captured in the LID infiltrates, that would be equivalent to 35 % of rain infiltrating, as opposed to about 10% or less without the LID measure (i.e., 25% more infiltration). In the Toronto area, considering about 700 mm of rainfall a year, that would be like adding 25% x 700 mm = 175 mm of water into the ground each year (about 7 inches). In Cincinnati, 7 inches of annual precipitation increased GWI by 20% - that is before any runoff transformation or evaporation losses. So adding 7 inches of water directly into the ground with an LID would have an even more pronounced impact on GWI, with potentially more than a 20% increase. Added to this long term, slow GWI response impact, would also be short duration RDII increases that even further reduce wastewater system capacity as the extreme events infiltrate into LID measures as well. Practitioners know that even fully separated wastewater systems where inflow sources have been addressed can have large RDII components, suggesting that infiltration can have a fast response as well, taking away peak flow capacity. 

The take-away is that what is a benefit to new developments is not typically one in old developments, across cities with existing GWI and RDII stresses and resulting basement flooding risks and treatment costs that can be made worse by infiltrating rain the previously was runoff.

Any positive impacts to wastewater systems with GI and LID measures? Yes, potentially a few in some isolated areas.

Consider existing infrastructure
impacts when evaluating green
infrastructure and low impact
development measures effects on
groundwater, wastewater
system capacity and operating costs.
There area where GI and LID may contribute to positive wastewater system performance is in combined sewer areas. In those areas, holding back runoff in GI and LID measures that would enter combined sewers could reduce combined sewer overflows (CSO's) - but not all Ontario cities have combined sewers. In Toronto, only 23% of the systems are combined. Also, GI can be expensive compared to other technologies (about $400,000 per hectare in capital costs, or about $1.3M-1.5M per kilometre of retrofitted roadway). An often cities have F-5-5 control strategies and operation improvements that make GI and LID implementation redundant. For example in Toronto, wastewater and stormwater runoff from combined sewer areas will collected and fully treated as part of projects needed for operational improvements (e.g., to regularly maintain and bypass the main Coxwell Ave. sewer) - so adding LID and GI measures on top of other infrastructure projects that will already virtually eliminate CSO's would appear to be redundant, with high incremental added costs and limited marginal benefits.





Toronto Island Flooding 2017 - Were Lake Ontario Levels Extreme? No, Barely Above Historical Maximum Levels

Blockbuster Release: Toronto Island Flood 2017..
really just a sequel to 1947, 1973, 1952 lake levels ...
and to storms back in the 1800's too (note - original
record years corrected Feb. 2019)
See 2019 update at bottom of the post

It is easy to 'think fast' and make observations about hydrologic and hydraulic events without looking at objective data. For example the document Blueprints for Action Minimizing Homeowner Flood Risk in the GTHA July 2017 notes the Toronto Island flooding:

"For many Torontonians in general, 2017 could be called “the year of the flood.” Higher amounts of rainfall during the spring caused Lake Ontario to swell by 55 centimetres, submerging not only parts of the Toronto Islands, but also affecting regional shorelines..."

And concludes:

"The cause of these kinds of flooding isn’t a secret. Climate change is having major local impacts across the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GHTA) including major flooding. Storms and extreme weather that typically happened every 20, 40, 80, to 100 years are now happening with increasing frequency."

What does data show us, however? Are Lake Ontario levels impacted in a major way by climate change? Not really. Below is a review of May to August Lake Ontario levels showing previous levels back to 1918:

Lake Ontario Historical Levels 2017 Flood Toronto Island
Correction: August 2017 did not set a record - that is held by 1947 levels. April record remains 1973.

May 2017 Lake Ontario levels were a few centimetres above historical maximum values in 1973 - June levels in 2017 (not shown) were similarly only a few centimetres above previous maximum monthly average values.

We broke a previous 1952 record by a couple inches in June according to Environment and Climate Change Canada's LevelNews;

"“Lake Ontario’s level at the start of June … set a new record for the highest beginning-of-June level on Lake Ontario in the period of record (1918 to present) breaking the previous record set in June 1952 by 5 cm.”

By August 2017 Lake Ontario levels were no greater than previous maximum values in 1947. So 2017 Lake Ontario levels are not a blockbuster climate change impact but rather a slow prodding sequel to previous fluctuations in levels.

So what is different in 2017 compared to previous years with high water levels? Is the risk of flooding on Toronto Island greater today than before? Yes, and this has to do with land use planning and risk management as opposed to climate change risks. This is a short chronology of development on the Toronto Islands:
  • 1858 – Storm separates Toronto Islands from the mainland. Quinn's Hotel and Parkinson's Hotel are destroyed.
  • 1950’s – 630 Cottages / Homes on Toronto Islands
  • 1970’s – 250 Cottages / Homes , by 1978 Metro Toronto had writs of possession for these homes and planned removal
  • 1981 - Province of Ontario passed a law legalizing the Islanders to stay until  2005
  • 1993 - Ontario Government passed Toronto Islands Residential Community Stewardship Act, Islanders to purchase 99-year land leases from a Land Trust
Was granting 99-year leases a good land use planning idea considering storm and flooding risks? Or did it unnecessarily add flood risk to a known high risk area, that had high lake levels in the past and significant storm damages even back in the mid 1800's? Obviously history shows us that there is not a significant climate change impact affecting flood risk but rather deliberate land use planning increasing the investment in a vulnerable area, as opposed to removing the risk (as was the plan through the 1970s).

And on the conclusion that storms and extreme weather are happening with greater frequency? Not at all. As Environment and Climate Change Canada has corrected the insurance industry on several occasions including recently in Canadian Underwriters:

"Associate Editor’s Note: In the 2012 report Telling the Weather Story, commissioned to the Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction by the Insurance Bureau of Canada, Professor Gordon McBean writes: “Weather events that used to happen once every 40 years are now happening once every six years in some regions in the country.” A footnote cites “Environment Canada: Intensity-Duration-Frequency Tables and Graphs.” However, a spokesperson for Environment and Climate Change Canada told Canadian Underwriter that ECCC’s studies “have not shown evidence to support” this statement."

The Toronto Island flooding is not unlike the Gatineau flooding in 2017. Buildings have been historically been built in areas that are at a high risk of flooding, and given enough time the risk will manifest themselves. Over time, old records will be broken - that is fundamental of statistical observations of random events, and not necessarily climate change impacts pushing old records higher. And the Toronto Island risks are not unlike high profile locations like High River, Alberta in 2013 or low profile locations like Cedar Beach Road, Clarington, Ontario in 2017. All these locations have intrinsic flood vulnerabilities based on their location and land use planning decisions. It is easy to call this a climate change impact but it it not accurate as the risks are long-standing ... yes back to the 1800's there were storm risks too.

Here is a summary of historical water levels (per August 2017 Bulletin and June 2017 LevelNews) and land use planning decisions at Toronto Islands (per Wikipedia):

Lake Ontario water levels 2017 Toronto Island flood risk lease agreements
Historical Lake Ontario water elevations and 2017 records.
Responsible journalism should not make sensational headlines out of every flood event that occurs and recognize that there is not a 'new normal' in weather extremes but rather the 'old normal' showing up again in a sequel. For example:

1) GO Train Flooding - Not New:
GO Train Flood Toronto
2) Toronto Road and Basement Flooding - Not New:Toronto Flood History

3) Toronto Island flooding and high Lake Ontario levels - not new either.




2017 levels nudged above previous records for May 1973, June 1952 and July 1947. It is not reasonable to expect that after 70 years very old records may be surpassed, like the July 1947 record being surpassed in 2017? Or that newer records would be surpassed too, like May 1973 after 44 years? After all its only a 100 year period of data and the Cornwall and Long Sault dams have been in place for just over half that time.

***

In 2019, levels have approached previous maximum levels and in June are expected to exceed previous monthly average levels by several centimetres. This chart shows May 2019 levels that are not above the 2017 maximum average monthly level - 2017 was 7 centimetres above the previous maximum in 1973.


The projected June 2019 average monthly level is expected to be 5 centimetres above the 2017 maximum. The 2017 maximum was 5 centimetres above the previous 1952 maximum.

So the records have been "nudged" higher in 2017 (May record) and in 2019 (projected June record).

How can one adjust to such water level fluctuations? Retreating from the known hazard is one approach. PARA stands for "Protect, Accommodate, Retreat or Avoid" and is discussed in the Canadian context in the paper Protect, accommodate, retreat or avoid (PARA): Canadian community options for flood disaster risk reduction and flood resilience by University of Waterloo researchers. In the paper it is noted that "In Toronto, post-Hurricane Hazel, the City used retreat as an effective strategy to reclaim and rezone flood-prone land." and that in the five years after the storm at least 530 properties were expropriated and over 9000 hectares of land rezoned to disallow housing.

In some cases iconic buildings like the Leuty Avenue Lifeguard Station in Toronto's eastern Beaches neighbourhood have been moved to accommodate changing water levels. The station has recently been raised to protect it from recent high lake levels and has been relocated 4 times since its construction in 1920:



Less Extreme Ontario Rainfall - Precipitation Intensities For Design of Buried Municipal Stormwater Systems by Yi Wang. A Thesis presented to The University of Guelph

Those with decreasing rainfall intensities
could be Singing in the Rain, with lower
stresses on their buried municipal
infrastructure systems.

Wang's Ph.D. thesis at the University of Guelph describes changes in frequent and extreme rainfall trends. The thesis is available here. Confidence limits on 2-year, 5-year, 10-year and 25-year rainfall intensities for durations of 5 minutes to 2 hours show no significant changes in most cases and decreasing rainfall intensities at many stations.

Results from page 51 show that there are more than twice as many decreases in rainfall as increases considering the 90% confidence limit, as shown below:



Table 3.2: Results of 90% Confidence Interval Comparison Test

ID     5min 10min 15min 30min 1h  2h
6034075 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----   Kenora A
6037775 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---   Sioux Lookout A
6057592 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----   Sault Ste Marie A
6085700 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----   North Bay A
6100971 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----   Brockville PCC
6104175 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----   Kingston Pumping Station
6105978 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----   Ottawa CDA RCS
6116132 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----   Owen Sound MOE
6131415 ---- ---- ---- --↓↓ --↓↓ ----   Chatham WPCP
6131983  /    /   ---- -↑↑↑ --- ----   Delhi CS
6136606 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----   Port Colborne
6137362 -↓↓↓ ---- ---- ---- ---- ----   St Thomas WPCP
6139525 ↓↓↓↓  /   ↓↓↓↓ ↓↓-- --- ----   Windsor A
6142400 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----   Fergus Shand Dam
6144478 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----   London CS
6148105 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----   Stratford MOE
6150689 ---- --- ↑↑-- ---- ↑↑-- ---   Belleville
6153301  /   ---- ---- ---- ---- ----   Hamilton RBG CS
6158355 -↓↓↓ -↓↓↓ ---- ---- ---- ----   Toronto City
6158733  /   ----  /    /    /    /     Toronto Intl A
6158875 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----   Trenton A

·        The arrows and hyphens in cells represent the results of CI comparison of 2, 5, 10, and 25-year events (from left to right). An up-arrow indicates an increase of rainfall intensity occurred in the 2nd period of record, and a down-arrow  indicates a decrease of rainfall intensity. A hyphen means no significant change (α = 0.1) is shown or, in other words, the CIs are not significantly different. Cells with slashes represent records that are not stationary.

11 significant increases , 24 significant decreases
Southwestern to Central Ontario most significant decreases

Results from page 52 show that there are almost twice as many decreases as increases considering the 80% confidence limit, as shown below:

Table 3.3: Results of 80% Confidence Interval Comparison Test

ID    5min 10min 15min 30min 1h  2h
6034075 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----   Kenora A
6037775 ---- ---- ---- ---- --- ↑↑--   Sioux Lookout A
6057592 --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----   Sault Ste Marie A
6085700 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----   North Bay A
6100971 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----   Brockville PCC
6104175 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----   Kingston Pumping Station
6105978 ---- ---- ---- --- --- ----   Ottawa CDA RCS
6116132 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----   Owen Sound MOE
6131415 ---- ---- ---- -↓↓↓ --↓↓ ----   Chatham WPCP  
6131983  /   ---- --- -↑↑↑ -↑↑↑ ----   Delhi CS
6136606 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----   Port Colborne 
6137362 -↓↓↓ --- ---- ---- ---- ----   St Thomas WPCP
6139525 ↓↓↓↓  /   ↓↓↓↓ ↓↓↓↓ --- ---   Windsor A
6142400 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----   Fergus Shand Dam    
6144478 ---- ---- ---- --- ---- ----   London CS
6148105 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----   Stratford MOE
6150689 ↑↑-- ↑↑-- ↑↑↑- --- ↑↑—  ↑↑↑↑   Belleville    
6153301  /    /   ---- --- -↓↓↓ ----   Hamilton RBG CS
6158355 ↓↓↓↓ -↓↓↓ -↓↓↓ ---- ---- ----   Toronto City
6158733  /   ----  /    /    /    /     Toronto Intl A
6158875 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----   Trenton A

·        The arrows and hyphens in cells represent the results of CI comparison of 2, 5, 10, and 25-year events (from left to right). An up-arrow indicates an increase of rainfall intensity occurred in the 2nd period of record, and a down-arrow  indicates a decrease of rainfall intensity. A hyphen means no significant change (α = 0.1) is shown or, in other words, the CIs are not significantly different. Cells with slashes represent records that are not stationary.


24 significant increases , 41 significant decreases
Southwestern to Central Ontario most significant decreases

***

Ontario climate change extreme rainfallHere are Wang's tables in original graphic format:


Ontario climate change rainfall